Exit poll projections released on Wednesday suggest varied prospects for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), even as most surveys predicted an advantage for the ruling alliance led by MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026.
According to projections by People Pulse, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance is likely to secure between 125 and 145 seats in the 234-member Assembly. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), backed by the National Democratic Alliance, is expected to win around 65 to 80 seats. The same survey projected TVK to win only two to six seats.
Another exit poll conducted by Matrize estimated that the DMK-led alliance could secure 122 to 132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance may win between 80 and 100 seats. In this survey, TVK’s tally was projected to range between zero and six seats.
Similarly, the P-MARQ exit poll forecast 125 to 145 seats for the DMK alliance and 60 to 70 seats for AIADMK. It predicted that TVK might secure between one and six seats.
However, projections by People Insight presented a contrasting scenario, estimating that TVK could win between 30 and 40 seats, indicating a significantly stronger performance compared to other surveys.
The electoral contest in Tamil Nadu primarily revolved around the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), and the National Democratic Alliance led by AIADMK along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK).
Tamil Nadu witnessed strong voter participation across districts, with Karur recording the highest turnout at 89.32%, followed by Salem at 88.02%, Erode at 87.59%, Dharmapuri at 87.28%, and Tiruppur at 86.33%. Urban and semi-urban regions also reported significant participation, including Chennai with 81.34%.
Data released by the Election Commission of India showed that overall voter turnout in the state reached 82.24% by 5 PM on April 23, with polling across all 234 constituencies concluding at 6 PM.
Counting of votes for the Assembly elections is scheduled to take place on May 4.
