Moscow has discussed scenarios for nuclear weapon use: Are you scared? You aren't scared enough

Make no mistake: there is no end to this war that doesn't take Moscow's concerns into confidence

FPJ Web DeskUpdated: Thursday, November 03, 2022, 07:59 AM IST
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We human beings are yet to discover a way to wage war 'cleanly' | Twitter/@roksiik

In the Cold War, both sides -- the United States and the Soviet Union -- discussed Doomsday scenarios.

Today, the United States, and its attendant adversary in the form of the Russian Federation, are discussing much the same thing.

Let us recap: throughout the era of nuclear weapons, the US strategy of deterrence has aimed to keep low a low probability event with high consequences - what this means essentially boils down to "maximum brinkmanship, coupled with a game of nuclear-armed, launch-on-warning chicken."

See the problem?

While the probability of Russian nuclear use remains low, the Ukraine War has elevated this risk to a level not seen since the most fraught moments of the Cold War.

As Putin warns that any Western interference in Ukraine will be met with a “lightning fast” response from Russia, the crisis contains the risk of escalation—such as a geographical spillover of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Make no mistake: there is no end to this war that doesn't take Moscow's concerns into confidence.

A lesson on History (with a capital 'H')

In the modern era -- the last 200 years or so -- Europe has been "semi-united" a grand total of three times:

The first was under France's Napoleon: It culminated in an invasion of Russia.

The second was under Germany's Hitler: It culminated in an invasion of Russia.

The third instance is right now, under the auspices of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, that is steadily expanding eastward, to Moscow's growing discomfort.

Is Moscow wrong?

Much more importantly, is New Delhi right, to hedge its bets?

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