New Delhi: There is bad news for the farm sector: India is expected to receive below normal rainfall during the upcoming Monsoon which is likely to arrive in Kerala on June 4. Besides, there is a 15 per cent chance of drought, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday. Besides arriving late by about 4 days — the normal onset date in Kerala is June 1 — the monsoon is expected to have a sluggish initial start.
According to the forecaster, there is a 30 per cent chance of normal rainfall, which is between 96 and 104 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA), 55 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA and 15 per cent chance of drought, meaning rainfall less than 90 per cent of the LPA, Skymet said.
It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow,” according to Skymet’s Managing Director Jatin Singh. He said all the four regions are “going to witness less than normal rainfall” this season. This is bad news for the farm sector which depends heavily on the monsoon rainfall.
Rainfall in east and north-east India and central parts will be poorer than that in north-west India and southern peninsula. East and north-east are expected to receive 92 per cent rainfall of the LPA, which is below normal. The region accounts for 38 per cent of the monsoon rainfall.
The rainfall in Central India, which contributes the second highest share of 26 per cent rainfall, is expected to be 91 per cent of the LPA, the lowest among all regions. “Odisha and Chhattisgarh are likely to be the rainiest of all while Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be poorer than normal,” it said.
Geographical risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, and marginal for north-east India, the Skymet said. In this region, there is a 10 per cent chance of deficit rainfall, 50 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, 25 per cent chance of normal, 10 per cent chance of above normal and 5 per cent chance of excess rainfall, it said.
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