As polling for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections concluded on April 29, exit poll projections have begun sketching an early picture and the numbers hint at a tight but significant shift.
UDF With 70 to 80 Seats
In Kerala, Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3.
People's Pulse predicted that the Congress-led UDF would get 75-85 seats, the LDF 55-65 and the NDA 0-3.
Matrize forecast 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 seats for the UDF and 3-5 seats for the NDA. Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.
LDF With 58 to 68 Seats
The ruling LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is estimated to trail with 58 to 68 seats, while the NDA is likely to remain on the margins with just 0 to 4 seats.
If these projections hold, the UDF could either form a slim majority or emerge as the single largest alliance in what has traditionally been a tightly contested, alternating two-front battle in the state.
UDF Leads While LDF Trails
The vote share estimates further reinforce this trend. The UDF is projected to secure around 44% of the vote, comfortably ahead of the LDF at 39%, with the NDA trailing at 14%. Notably, the data suggests that the UDF is leading across most age groups, indicating a broader voter swing.
Other Agencies prediction
India News–Jan Ki Baat projects LDF at 64–76 seats and UDF at 61–71
Times Now/ABP-CVoter estimates LDF at 71–77 and UDF at 62–68
People's Pulse, Matrize has also predicted a surge for the Congress-led UDF, giving it between 70-75 seats.
The average of polls suggests a competitive race, but the Axis My India numbers sharply tilt the narrative toward a potential UDF comeback.
With Kerala Legislative Assembly election 2026 witnessing a high-stakes battle and the LDF aiming for a rare third consecutive term, all eyes will now be on May 4, when counting will determine whether these projections translate into a political shift or another twist in Kerala’s cyclical mandate.
