India's outbound tourism sector, which was gearing up for a record-breaking summer, is now facing a severe downturn as the escalating conflict in West Asia has triggered a wave of mass cancellations and a near-total halt in new international travel inquiries. Tour operators have recorded cancellations of about 60-80% of the international bookings while the remaining travellers are reportedly in a ‘wait-and-watch’ mode to monitor the geopolitical situation.
Preferred Destinations
The recent outbound travel trend for the vacation season in Summer shows that Indians majorly prefer visiting destinations in the West, including Europe and the United States. Most of these travellers book their travel packages at least three to four months in advance to get the best deals on flights and hotels. However, the West Asia conflict has forced these scheduled travellers to reconsider their plans.
According to the associations of Indian tour operators, around 60% of international bookings for the April–June period have already been cancelled. Those who booked their travel post June are in a ‘wait-and-watch mode, delaying final payments or cancellation to save themselves from additional charges in the hope that the geopolitical situation might get better.
Group Departures Halted
Mumbai-based Sameer Karnani, managing committee member of Travel Agents Association of India and the chairman of its airline council, said that various group departure companies have discontinued their departures for the upcoming season. “While safety is the first concern of travellers while visiting an international destination, the rising airfares is the second-most contributing factor to these cancellations. Around 60% of the international bookings have been completely cancelled or have been shifted to domestic travel,” he said.
Mumbai-based Kumar Verma, who is the director of travel company Saturday Script, said that he has witnessed around 70-80% cancellation of international bookings. “There is a fear of uncertainty among the travellers about their journey as well as the situation back at home. Indians don't view tourism as a necessity and in such times of panic, they avoid luxury. Unlike the Covid-19 pandemic, travellers have not received any advisory from the government about their travel and therefore people are also thinking about postponing their plans,” he said.
Airspace Closures and Soaring Costs
The crisis combines safety fears with prohibitive costs due to airspace closures, soaring airfares and logistical gridlock. Major aviation corridors over the Gulf have been restricted, forcing airlines to take longer paths to reach the West. Along with the recent fuel surcharge announced by airlines, it has led to a multifold surge in airfares. Moreover, Middle Eastern hubs like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, which act as major transit points for Indian and Gulf carriers, the uncertainty at these hubs has made travelers wary of getting stranded far from home.
With the airfares to the West increasing two-fold, tour packages have become increasingly expensive for Indian travellers. Tour operators reported that the traditional summer rush for foreign destinations has vanished. Travel agents highlighted that there have been negligible amount of enquiries for international travel packages since the start of the conflict. Even regions far from the conflict, such as the East and Southeast Asia, are seeing a decline in interest due to the rising airfares.
However, this has shifted the international travellers towards domestic destinations. Karnani said that a few of the international bookings are being converted to domestic packages for Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh or nearby regions in the northern belt. “Those who want to change their plans from the West to the East are also finding the airfares very costly. The market recession and the falling rupee combined have also created problems. Therefore people are focusing more on domestic travel now,” he said.
According to Verma, people are trying to shift their destination towards the East or the Asian subcontinent but are obstructed by costly airfares. Destinations like Singapore, Malaysia, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are open but people are avoiding it solely due to the airfares. “Domestic destinations are seeing its usual seasonal-wise high demand but the international travellers are not converting to domestic travellers due to either their preference or overcrowding,” he added.
A group of 70 people from the Rotary Club of Dahisar were scheduled to visit Georgia during March-end but had to cancel after their IndiGo flight was cancelled and none of the other flights were feasible. “When the only way of reaching the destination was not available, we had to cancel all our bookings. Moreover, we thought that travelling to such a far-off country during such war conditions is not a good idea,” said the club's president Jayant Pawar.
