National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee has said it could not predict the exact nature of the second wave of the pandemic in India. The panel, however, is continuing its efforts to better estimate its future trajectory.
The committee comprising 3 scientists working on the SUTRA model for charting the trajectory of Covid-19, denied reports in media it cautioned the government in March about the second wave but attention was not paid to it.
The panel comprising Manindra Agrawal, Professor, IIT Kanpur, Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief, Integrated Defense Staff and M Vidyasagar, Professor, IIT Hyderabad issued a clarification about some facts related to predictions of their mathematical model.
“A meeting was called on 2nd April to seek our inputs by one of the very senior officers of the government coordinating the national pandemic response. We indicated the SUTRA model predicted the second wave to peak by the third week of April and to stay most likely around 1 lakh daily cases,” they said.
The panel admitted the model predictions in this instance were incorrect as the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly.
Virus spreading to villages: Punjab minister
Health Minister Balbir Singh Sidhu on Tuesday said the coronavirus has started to spread to the rural areas because of which the positivity rate and deaths are increasing in Punjab. Speaking to ANI, Sidhu said: "The situation of Punjab is similar to the country. The positivity rate and the number of deaths are increasing in the state. People from Delhi, Haryana and other states are shifting to Punjab and this is the main reason for a surge in cases in the state." He said the state government has imposed restrictions for the people coming from other states. "Now, they have to show negative COVID-19 report and vaccination certificate, then they will be allowed to enter in Punjab and we hope that this restriction will make difference". "Now, the infection has started to spread to the rural areas and that will increase the problem for the state. That is why we have urged people to stay at home, take all the precautions and follow all the guidelines and advisory of the government," he added.