India Meteorological Department plays down US warning on El Nino

India Meteorological Department plays down US warning on El Nino

Sindhu MansukhaniUpdated: Saturday, June 01, 2019, 02:38 AM IST
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Mumbai :  After the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States predicted that El Nino could last throughout 2015 in Northern Hemisphere affecting the climate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and possibly leading to a drought in India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Mumbai said that it is too early to make such predictions, which are in any case, unlikely.

The deputy director general of IMD Mumbai, K Hosalikar said that although El Nino has been predicted, it is a global phenomenon whose effects can be safely predicted only when it hits. The region where it hits will also decide its effects in India. And as such it is too early a time to predict its effects on monsoon in India.

“In addition, the IMD is going to release its long range weather forecast in the last week of April where we will be predicting the monsoon in India this year. That would give us a clear idea of its progress and patterns. El Nino on the hand cannot alone affect the monsoon in India or Mumbai for that matter,” Hosalikar said.

In the past one century, El Nino has hit the globe for a time which collectively spans a period of three odd decades.

Out of the three decades, it has often happened that India has experienced normal, above normal or less than normal rainfall. “Also, El Nino cannot alone herald a drought. There is no one-to-one correspondence between the two. For all we know the rainfall might just be above normal in Mumbai,” Hosalikar added.

El Nino has certain areas around the globe where it is more likely to hit than the others. The place where it hits would give experts and idea if it will affect India or Mumbai considerably. In addition, the time when it hits will also decide its effects. “Had it arrived in March-April, it could have affected the monsoon in the country. But if it hits in June-July, its effects will be seen only after the period of monsoon is over. So to say that there are chances of there being a drought in the country wouldn’t be correct. Even if it hits, there will only be a threat but no definite prediction of it affecting us,” he said.

El Nino is a global climactic phenomenon which leads to increased temperatures of the ocean water in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, which can lead to global changes in terms of temperatures and rainfall. It is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO).

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