Global investment banking firm Jefferies has maintained its BUY rating on AWL Agri Business Ltd. with a target price of ₹260 per share, indicating a potential upside of approximately 50% from the reference price of ₹173.15. In its latest research note dated October 27, 2026, titled Foods Momentum Strong; Risk Reward Attractive, Jefferies highlighted the company's strong Food and FMCG performance, expanding distribution network and growing export opportunities as key drivers of its future growth. It noted that AWL trades at approximately 18 times one year forward earnings, making its investment risk and reward profile attractive.
AWL reported a 26% increase in consolidated revenue to ₹222,019 mn during Q2 FY27, supported by overall volume growth of 14%. While EBITDA grew 11% to approximately ₹6,227 mn, adjusted profit after tax declined 2% to approximately ₹2,391 mn due to margin pressures and higher taxation. The consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 2.8%, reflecting a decline of 37 basis points compared with the corresponding quarter last year. Despite the mixed profitability performance, Jefferies remains positive on the company's business fundamentals and long term growth potential.
The brokerage identified Food and FMCG as a key growth engine, with the segment registering 32% revenue growth to approximately ₹22,162 mn and 28% volume growth during the quarter. Fortune Pulses recorded growth exceeding 40%, while rice, wheat flour and Kohinoor delivered double digit growth. GD Foods also continued its growth momentum, registering growth exceeding 25%, supported by expansion beyond North India into eastern and central markets. The Health & Convenience portfolio crossed ₹14,000 mn in revenue over the trailing 12 months.
Jefferies also highlighted AWL's strengthening distribution capabilities, with its General Trade network expanding to more than 26 lakh retail outlets. Quick commerce continued to gain momentum, recording 54% revenue growth and 44% volume growth, while the HoReCa business registered 22% revenue growth, with revenue over the trailing 12 months crossing ₹8,000 mn. Volumes across alternate channels grew 13% year on year. The brokerage believes the company's expanding presence across traditional and emerging retail channels will support sustained growth in its branded food portfolio.
In the edible oils business, AWL recorded 23% revenue growth to approximately ₹170,674 mn, with volumes increasing 5% to approximately 1.1 million metric tonnes, supported by demand for mustard, groundnut and cottonseed oils. EBITDA per tonne increased 6% year on year to approximately ₹4,100, within management's guidance range of ₹4,000 to ₹4,500. Jefferies expects festive demand, lower duties and premiumisation initiatives to contribute to the segment's performance in the coming quarters.
The report also identified Industry Essentials as an important contributor to growth. Segment revenue increased 39% to approximately ₹29,183 mn, while volumes grew 26%. EBITDA per tonne rose 8% to ₹4,335. Jefferies expects volume growth to normalise to approximately 10% to 11%, with oleochemicals and specialty chemicals, which account for approximately 45% of segment revenue, expected to support profitability as the value added portfolio scales.
The report further highlighted AWL's growing international presence, with branded export volumes increasing 72% year on year. Jefferies identified the United States, United Kingdom, Europe and Australia as markets offering meaningful growth opportunities for the company's branded food portfolio. Branded exports currently contribute approximately ₹8,000 mn in revenue.
Looking ahead, Jefferies expects AWL to deliver approximately 10% compound annual revenue growth and 12% earnings per share growth between FY26 and FY29, supported by its expanding Food and FMCG portfolio, value added Industry Essentials business and international operations. The brokerage forecasts consolidated revenue of approximately ₹856,290 mn in FY27, increasing to ₹995,011 mn by FY29, while profit after tax is estimated to rise from approximately ₹11,538 mn in FY27 to ₹15,189 mn in FY29.
While acknowledging near term profitability pressures, commodity price volatility and regulatory risks, Jefferies believes AWL's strong brand portfolio, extensive distribution reach and growing contribution from Food and FMCG support its positive outlook. The brokerage has consequently reiterated its BUY recommendation with a target price of ₹260, reflecting confidence in AWL's longer term growth prospects.
Source: Jefferies Equity Research, October 27, 2026.
