Major exit polls on Saturday predicted that the BJP would make inroads in South, especially in Kerala, by securing two or three seats. However, a local exit poll, Manorama News-VMR painted a different picture. It claimed that the saffron party would not be able to win any of the 20 constituencies in the state.
As per its prediction, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to win 16-18 seats, while the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to take 2-4 seats, slightly improving its single-seat performance from the 2019 elections.
It also showed the UDF obtaining 42.06% of the votes, the LDF 35.09%, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 18.64%. Both UDF and LDF are anticipated to lose vote share by 4.76% and 0.64%, respectively. Despite agreeing with other exit polls that the NDA would increase its vote share in Kerala, this poll estimates a modest increase of 3.7%, significantly lower than some predictions of a 12-point rise to 27%.
Shashi Tharoor vs Rajeev Chandrasekhar: Who has the edge?
In addition to this, the BJP might come second in Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta. In Thiruvananthapuram, Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is predicted to have 35.35% of the votes, behind three-time incumbent MP Shashi Tharoor, who is expected to secure 37.86%. LDF candidate Pannyan Raveendran is forecasted to come in third with 25.58%.
In Pathanamthitta, Anil Antony, the son of former Union minister A.K. Antony and a recent Congress defector, is expected to place second. He is predicted to receive 32.17% of the vote, trailing three-time incumbent MP Anto Antony, who is projected to get 36.53%. CPI(M) candidate and former Kerala minister Thomas Isaac is expected to come in third with 27.7%.
If this exit poll is accurate, the BJP's significant disappointment would be the third-place finish of its prominent candidate Suresh Gopi in Thrissur. K. Muraleedharan of the UDF is expected to retain the seat with 37.53% of the vote, while CPI candidate V.S. Sunilkumar is projected to secure second place with 30.72%. Suresh Gopi, a Malayalam film star running for the second time, is expected to improve his vote share from 28.19% in 2019 to 29.55%.
The exit poll also predicts that the LDF will reclaim the Palakkad seat from UDF's V.K. Sreekantan, with A. Vijayaraghavan as the LDF candidate. In the highly contested Vadakara seat, former Kerala minister K.K. Shailaja is expected to narrowly defeat UDF’s Shafi Parambil. Alathoor and Kannur are too close to call, according to the poll.
Rahul Gandhi to win again from Wayanad
Rahul Gandhi is anticipated to secure an easy victory in Wayanad, although his vote share is expected to decrease by 13.65%. He is projected to receive 50.99% of the vote, with CPI candidate Annie Raja getting 35.48% and BJP's K. Surendran only 10.65%.
A significant finding from the exit poll is that K.C. Venugopal, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary and close aide to Rahul, is expected to win back the Alappuzha constituency for the UDF. Alappuzha was the only seat won by the LDF in Kerala in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Remember Manorama News’s exit poll stands alone at a time when major exit polls have shown notable gains for the BJP in Kerala in terms of both seats and vote share.
Mentioned below are predictions by major exit polls:
ABP C-Voter exit poll predicted 17-19 seats for the UDF, one to three seats for the BJP, and no seats for the LDF.
India Today-Axis My India predicted 17-18 seats for the UDF, two to three seats for the NDA, and zero to one for the LDF.
Times Now-ETG projected four seats for the LDF, 14-15 for the UDF, and one for the NDA.
India TV-CNX forecast suggested three to five seats for the LDF, 13-15 for the UDF, and one to three for the NDA.
News18 predicted the UDF would win 15-18 seats, with the NDA securing one to three seats.
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