Index of unity among the opposition parties is hardly something that bothered Prime Minister Narendra Modi when it came to the Lok Sabha election in May 2019.
His standing and popularity among the masses (compared to other challengers) was more than sufficient to bring a larger mandate than the first one he got in the 2014 LS election.
But cut to December 2019, things are getting different. The shock defeat of the BJP in Jharkhand after less-than-expected performance in Maharashtra and Haryana has reduced the areas under the rule of the BJP and its allies.
Today, the BJP is in power only in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and Haryana (the last two states under a coalition) in the Hindi heartland. In December 2018, three states held by the BJP — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan went to the Congress.
The Jharkhand success story was scripted by an unassuming Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in an alliance with the Congress, which willingly played the second fiddle. (The alliance won 47 seats in the 81-member state assembly in the five-phase election that ended on December 20.)
The BJP lost its traditional support among the tribals as well as non-tribals for a host of local reasons, which included internal strife in the party and style of functioning of the incumbent chief minister.
More importantly, the unity factor among the opposition parties has shown greater affinity despite their disparate ambitions. They are on a learning curve and seek to challenge the domination of the BJP in the states decisively.
A month ago, in Maharashtra, the BJPs three-decade-old ally Shiv Sena did what was unthinkable a few years ago. It crossed the Hindutva ideological barrier to join hands with the “secular” Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party.
Of course, the BJP’s standard response is that these are state polls and do not reflect the PM’s standing among the voters at a national level. Second, it holds that the unity of opposition is sans ideas or vision and solely intended to wrest power from the BJP. Therefore, the scenario still leaves Modi and his party with a strong ideological advantage for the future.
Once the economy perks up and more deliveries are ensured on the ground in the next four and half years left for its rule at the Centre, the BJP expects a ride back to the top.
However, with the economic pressures and protests on the streets led by a combination of minority groups, youths and activists on the issue of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), National Population Register and the National Register for Indian Citizens, the opposition smells a big opportunity.
It feels that its attempts would bear fruit and succeed in presenting a picture of a beleaguered central government despite a huge mandate handed in 2019.
Naturally, an unfazed Modi and his ministers have sought to hit back by getting the BJP governments to quell violence on the streets at the risk of focus being shifted to “unprecedented and inhuman” crackdown on “peaceful” demonstrators who are only exercising their right to protest. (Incidentally, the protests have largely been limited to BJP-ruled states.)
Government leaders have even pointed to a “systematic” malicious campaign and misinformation by radical groups to incite a section. The CAA was passed by Parliament after an intense debate that heard all shades of opinion.
In response, the Congress and the electorally-marginalised Left have sought to add to the ammunition of the street protests by thrashing the efforts of the government to downplay the linkages between the decennial exercise of Census 2020-21 and revision of the National Population Register (first done by the UPA in 2010) and the National Register for Indian Citizens (NRIC). So much so, the opposition ruled states have threatened to jeopardise the Census-NPR drive that are mandated by a central law.
Until the hearing of the petitions challenging the enactment of the CAA by the Supreme Court on January 22, the government is aware that the heat and dust of the ruckus over the issue may refuse to settle down. In the meantime, the BJP will work to reach out to Muslim leaders and families to allay fears and misgivings and bring clarity.
What is more important for those who see opportunities are two important elections in the New Year— Delhi and Bihar.
The Delhi Assembly election in February can enable the BJP to wrest back some control. It had won all the seven Lok Sabha seats, shocking the political wits out of Kejriwal who has since toned-down personal attacks on Modi.
Of course, Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is confident that it can ward off the challenge from the BJP as well as the Congress because of the largesse it has handed to the poor and marginal sections of Delhi’s voters closer to the polls.
Therefore, it is in Bihar where the BJP has to work carefully. It is to balance the demands of the politics of alliances and strong leadership. Despite a sweeping victory for the NDA in Bihar in the May 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP may be required to shed pride and reach a compromise with its allies on the seat-sharing formula.
It cannot allow the absence of great chemistry with Janata Dal (United) to let go the advantages for the BJP since Nitish Kumar returned to its fold after a two-year affair with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD.
Often, the war of words between local BJP and JD(U) leaders have cast shadows over the alliance. But the lessons from the Jharkhand election are too fresh to be forgotten.
They will force the BJP to be more accommodative than hitherto — towards the demands of allies like JD(U) in the polls, which will be held in October 2020.
The writer is former Senior Associate Editor of Hindustan Times and Political Editor of Deccan Herald, New Delhi.
