BJP has to refine its act to emerge unscathed

BJP has to refine its act to emerge unscathed

The diminution of its voteshare vis-à-vis Lok Sabha 2019 indicates that while electors still repose faith in the BJP, the issues in focus have changed.

Bhavdeep KangUpdated: Thursday, October 31, 2019, 09:36 AM IST
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The results of the recent assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana belied expectations of a one-sided sweep. The BJP thus finds itself heavily dependent on allies.

The diminution of its voteshare vis-à-vis Lok Sabha 2019 indicates that while electors still repose faith in the BJP, the issues in focus have changed.

Prime Minister Modi's recent moves on the foreign policy and political front, such as the abrogation of Article 370, have met with public approval. But attention has now shifted to the chronic problems plaguing the political economy of India: the agrarian crisis, unemployment, economic slowdown, banking debacle and the continuing violence perpetrated by right-wing extremists.

Added to these were localised factors, as indicated by the defeat of ministers in Maharashtra and Haryana. Even PM Modi's rallies could not stave off defeat in some of the seats.

Anti-incumbency claimed Pankaja Munde, a minister and daughter of the late grassroots leader, Gopinath Munde. The large number of NOTA votes also points to anti-incumbency.

Some factors were beyond the control of the chief ministers. In Haryana, for example, Manohar Lal Khattar had little wiggle room as far as dalit voters were concerned.

The conviction and arrest of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim in 2017 may have disenchanted the BJP's dalit constituency, but the state government could not be seen to favour the disgraced godman.

Nor could Khattar have wooed the aggressive Jat lobby in preference to the forward castes. Besides, Haryana was severely affected by the auto sector slowdown, which resulted in intermittent shutdown of factories. Congress president Sonia Gandhi's decision to project B S Hooda regardless of his legal troubles, was vindicated when he proved capable of encashing voter discontent.

In Maharashtra, it had no such advantage. The election was virtually outsourced to Sharad Pawar. He did his best but pre-election defections had reduced the NCP to a one-man show and Devendra Fadnavis managed to hold the fort.

Every party lost in terms of voteshare as compared to assembly 2014 and the only one which gained in terms of number of votes was the NCP. The Shiv Sena was the biggest loser in this respect, which accounts for its aggressive posture vis-à-vis the BJP.

For PM Modi, the results are a gentle reminder that voters are deeply concerned about the state of the economy. Incrementalist approaches to banking, administrative and tax reforms will not suffice, specially in the light of a global slowdown and increasing competition.

The agricultural sector, in particular, desperately needs attention. Farmers are in distress and recent indications that the apex court will effectively jettison the Land Act of 2013 have added to their disillusionment.

Ahead of Lok Sabha 2019, he took a sharp left turn towards welfarism. Post-electoral analysis indicates that it was his handling of Pakistan and terror and his own personal charisma that crafted his thumping victory, rather than electoral sops.

It may have been a response to the Congress' electoral strategy of promising a minimum economic guarantee – a pie-in-the-sky scheme which failed to win votes.

If anyone can move forward on reforms, the PM can. He has the unique ability to convince the electorate, from time to time, to swallow bitter pills for the larger good: demonetisation, rollback of cooking gas subsidies for middle income groups and GST, to cite some examples. But it is one that must be used sparingly. Voters cannot live on a diet of chirata (bitter herb) alone!

Another desirable course-correction has to do with the perceived over-dependence on the bureaucracy. Central ministers, with a few exceptions, feel disempowered vis-à-vis their top babus, although none of them will admit to it on record.

The bureaucracy by its very nature has little stake in revving up public delivery systems. The consequent status quoism and slow delivery on flagship programmes like Smart City, Digital India, Fasal Bima Yojana, etc is at odds with the dynamic image that the PM himself presents.

A third area of concern is managing expectations within the NDA. The BJP clearly needs it allies, at least at the regional level. At the same time, it must deal with internal discontent.

The party's rapid expansion necessitated the induction and promotion of outsiders, which has naturally discomposed old hands. The transition from a cadre to a mass base has led to an erosion and dilution of traditional values of discipline and loyalty. Taking either the allies or its own party workers for granted may prove expensive in future.

The upcoming assembly elections in Delhi and Jharkhand present a challenge for all the players involved. Granted that the BJP's stakes are not as high as those of opposition parties, but the results will indicate which way the breeze is blowing.

The writer is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines.

She is now an independent writer and author.

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