Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the stock market indices in India. The Indian stock markets could open flat to mildly lower in line with mixed Asian markets today and despite lower US markets on Friday, said Deepak Jasani, Head-Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
FOMC meeting and Russia-Ukraine issue will be key global factors this week Indian equity markets rebound after a continuous fall for four weeks thanks to some positive news flows on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, BJP victory in four states, cool off in crude oil prices, and selling exhaustion, said Santosh Meena, Head-Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. There are still uncertainties on the Russia-Ukraine issue while we will have an important FOMC meeting outcome on March 16, amid hyperinflation. Amid all, crude oil prices and FIIs' behavior will be important triggers to drive the Indian market in a truncated week. On the domestic front, inflation numbers will be announced on March 14, added Meena.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities, said benchmark indices is expected to open on a slightly negative note as suggested by early trends on SGX nifty. The markets showed directional bias for the fourth consecutive day on Friday as it closed with meagre gains. Investor sentiments were boosted on the back of BJP’s win in UP which is considered a gateway to Lok sabha elections.
As, the new week starts investor sentiments will again shift towards the ongoing tussle between Ukraine and Russia. Investors will also be eyeing the rising crude oil prices and its impact on domestic prices and economy as a whole. It will be interesting to watch when the government will hike the domestic fuel prices.
On the technical front, the key resistance level for Nifty50 is 16,700 followed by 16,800 and on the downside 16,500 and 16,350 will act as strong support. They key resistance level for bank nifty is 34,900 followed by 35,200 and on the downside 34,100 and 33,700 will act as strong support, Nigam added.
"We feel that Nifty could correct minorly for the next few sessions and later rise to cross the 16,800 highs towards 17050. On falls it can take support from the 16,250-16,350 band. Volatility and volumes could again slide in the early part of the week," added Jasani.
Nifty rose for the fourth consecutive session on March 11 post a range bound trade. At close, Nifty was up 0.26 percent or 43.5 points at 16,638.4.
Asian shares trade mixed
Asian shares were mixed and oil slipped on Monday on hopes for progress in Russian-Ukraine peace talks even as fighting raged on, while bond markets braced for rate rises in the United States and UK this week.
CPI, WPI numbers this week
The current week will bring triggers from India's CPI, WPI numbers and US PPI, Retail sales numbers and US Fed interest rate decision. India's advance tax collection numbers could also be available later in the week which may reflect the strength of income generation by businesses in India in these volatile times.
US stocks close lower
US stocks closed lower Friday, with all three major benchmarks booking another week of losses, after President Joe Biden called for a suspension of normal trade relations with Russia as part of sanctions designed to economically isolate Moscow for its unprovoked attack in Ukraine. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.9 percent, while the Dow slid 2 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.5 percent,.
Tentative optimism about the war, tied to comments Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly made about “positive” shifts in talks with Ukraine, faded after Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said he didn’t see any progress in Russian-Ukrainian talks.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes up
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed Friday at 2 percent, but it rose 28.2 basis points this week for the largest weekly gain since September 2019.
In USeconomic reports, data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed a fall to an initial March reading of 59.7 from February’s level of 62.8. On Friday, Goldman Sachs economists lowered their forecast for 2022 U.S. gross-domestic-product growth to 1.75% from 2%.
IIP edges up
India's industrial growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), edged up to 1.3 percent in January from 0.7 percent in December. Capital goods and Consumer Durables reported negative YoY growth while Mining, Infra and Consumer non durable goods reported good growth.
EPFO to cut interest rates on PF deposits
The Employees' Provident Fund Organization has proposed to cut interest rate on provident fund deposits to its lowest level in over four decades. An interest rate of 8.1% has been recommended for EPFO's subscribers for the year 2021-22, compared with 8.5% in the previous 2020-21, according to a statement by the Ministry of Labour and Employment.
Govt has time till May 12 to launch LIC IPO
The government has time till May 12 to launch the initial public offering (IPO) of LIC without filing fresh papers with market regulator Sebi, an official said.
The government's sale of about 31.6 crore shares or 5 percent stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), which was estimated to fetch around Rs 60,000 crore to the exchequer, was originally planned to be launched in March, but the Russia-Ukraine crisis has derailed the plans as stock markets are highly volatile.
On February 13, the government filed the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) for the IPO with Sebi, which granted its approval for the same last week.
