SBI Research pegs Q3 GDP at 6.7 percent

MUMBAI: The economy is likely to grow at 6.6-6.7 percent in the third quarter and 7.2 per cent for the full financial year, says report. The yearly SBI composite index for February saw a marginally rise to 50.60 (a score of under 50 indicates negative growth).

The index remained volatile and declined to 11-month low of 46.10 (low decline) in February from 52.8 (moderate growth) in January. “Based on the annual performance of these leading indicators, we are expecting GDP to grow around 6.6-6.7 per cent in the December quarter, SBI Research said Monday.

The report said the CSO has recently revised GDP growth for FY18 from 6.7 per cent earlier to 7.2 per cent. At this rate, FY19 growth rate would have been at 5.9 per cent (earlier 7.2 per cent), it said. “We, however, believe the GDP deflator which is at 4.1 per cent now, could be revised downwards by at least 50 bps, thus pushing GDP close to 7.2 per cent in FY19,” it said.

With the decline in index, IIP manufacturing may grow at 1.5 per cent and overall IIP at 2.5 per cent in February, the report said. It expects total GST collection for February to be at Rs 95,500 crore, significantly lower than Rs 1.05 lakh crore in the previous month.

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