New Delhi, Dec 23: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) does not expect a significant change in India’s GDP growth estimates after the release of the revised national accounts series in February next year, MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said on Tuesday.
“Too early to say on its impact on GDP numbers. In general, we don’t expect much change from our previous expectations,” Garg told journalists here.
New GDP, Inflation Series To Be Released
The government is set to release the new GDP series along with a new inflation series. The revised national accounts framework will also include back-series data for 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25, enabling continuity and comparison.
Growth Outlook Already Strengthened
India’s growth outlook has already improved after the economy recorded a higher-than-expected 8.2 per cent growth in in the second quarter. This has led to an increase in the growth projections for 2025-26. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised its GDP growth forecast for the economy to 7.3 per cent.
Greater Use Of Real-Time GST Data
A key aspect of the revised methodology is the expanded use of real-time data sources, particularly Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings.
“We now have a lot of real-time data available with GSTN and we will be able to use that to help estimate state domestic product. We will have better triangulation mechanisms available,” Garg said.
Capacity Building For States On GSDP Estimates
The ministry will also roll out capacity-building workshops for states to strengthen Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimates.
Focus On Better Measuring Informal Economy
Garg highlighted the ministry’s efforts to better measure the informal economy -- traditionally one of the most challenging aspects of national accounting.
“The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) will inform the base revision in GDP, with more granular and more frequent information now available,” he explained.
CEA Flags Challenges In Measuring Informality
Speaking at the same event, Chief Economic Adviser to the government, V Anantha Nageswaran, however, cautioned that informality is inherently difficult to measure.
“Measuring informality is not an easy exercise because there are no uniform measures across the world,” Nageswaran said. “We are often overestimating informality because small businesses do not always make a clear distinction between personal and business accounts.”
He noted that small businesses often blur the line between personal and business finances, leading to possible overestimation.
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Satellite Accounts And Expanded Inflation Coverage Planned
Garg also said that the ministry is working with states to develop satellite accounts for emerging and under-measured areas such as the digital economy, tourism, and culture, in line with the upcoming System of National Accounts 2025 revision, expected to be adopted globally from 2029. Inflation coverage will be expanded across urban and rural markets, with the inclusion of e-commerce and other digital price data to better reflect changing consumption patterns.
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