Madrid International travel will likely fall by 20-30 percent in 2020 due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, putting millions of jobs in the global tourism sector at risk, the World Tourism Organization said Friday.
This revises sharply lower a forecast made on March 6 of a decline of just 1.0-3.0 percent due to the travel restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the disease and economic fallout of the outbreak.
The drop in arrivals will lead to an estimated loss of $300-450 billion in international tourism receipts, almost one third of the $1.5 trillion generated in 2019, the Madrid-based UN body said in a statement.
The UNWTO said it had revised its forecast to consider "the unparalleled introduction of travel restrictions across the world" but added it "should be interpreted with caution in view of the extreme uncertain nature of the current crisis." The body had predicted at the beginning of the year that international tourism would grow by 3.0-4.0 percent in 2020.
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"Tourism is among the hardest hit of all economic sectors," the body's secretary general, Zurab Pololikashvili, said in the statement, adding "it is clear" that millions of jobs within the sector are at risk. The UNWTO noted that small and medium-sized businesses make up around 80 percent of the tourism sector, which "leads the way" in providing jobs for women, youths and rural communities.
By comparison international tourism arrivals declined by 4.0 percent in 2009 during the global economic crisis and by just 0.4 percent in 2003 after the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which killed 774 people worldwide, it added.
