India’s imports of Russian crude oil have dropped sharply in August, raising concerns for domestic refiners as disruptions to Russian production and exports intensify.
The decline comes at a time when India’s crude procurement costs are rising, potentially reducing the benefit refiners have received from discounted Russian supplies.
According to Kpler data cited in a report by Financial Express , Russian crude deliveries averaged around 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the first 15 days of August, nearly 32% below the record 2.8 mbpd recorded in July. Imports had steadily increased from 1.6 mbpd in April to 1.9 mbpd in May, 2.7 mbpd in June and 2.8 mbpd in July.
Refinery Maintenance Cuts Russian Supplies
As Russian supplies declined, Indian refiners increased purchases from traditional West Asian suppliers. UAE deliveries reached around 700,000 bpd in the first half of August, while Saudi Arabia supplied approximately 480,000 bpd.
The shift comes as India’s crude basket becomes more expensive. The average price stood at $88.62 per barrel in August, compared with $82.04 in July and $83.22 in June. The price was $89.58 per barrel on August 17.
Rising international crude prices are adding pressure, with Brent trading around $91.07 per barrel and WTI near $84.99. The reduced availability of Russian crude could force Indian refiners to source more expensive replacement barrels.
According to the report, Rystad Energy has also lowered its forecast for Russian crude production, projecting average output of 8.95 mbpd in 2026, followed by a decline to around 8.6 mbpd in 2027.
The consultancy expects Russian refinery throughput to average roughly 4 mbpd in the second half of 2026, nearly 30% below the historical seasonal average. It estimates Russia could process around 1.4 mbpd less crude than normal during the period.
Rystad said increasing drone attacks are now affecting both Russia’s refining and upstream operations. With spare capacity limited and ageing oil wells accounting for much of it, prolonged disruptions could eventually force production cuts and permanently reduce some output capacity.
