New Delhi, Jan 14: India’s GDP will likely expand 7.5–7.8 per cent in the current fiscal (FY26), driven by festive demand and robust services activity, a report said on Wednesday.
Growth expected to moderate in FY27
The report from Deloitte India, however, noted that growth could moderate to 6.6–6.9 per cent in FY27 because of a high base and lingering global uncertainties.
Resilience amid global headwinds
The business consultancy noted that real GDP grew 8 per cent in the first half of 2025–26 (April–September), underscoring the economy’s resilience amid trade disruptions, policy shifts in advanced economies and volatile capital flows.
Policy focus to shift in 2026
“India’s resilience is no accident. It stems from sustained pro-growth policies,” Deloitte India economist Rumki Majumdar said. “With demand-side levers largely addressed, policy focus in 2026 will shift toward supply-side reforms, focusing on MSMEs, and developing tier-2 and tier-3 cities as new engines of growth,” Majumdar added.
India-US trade deal likely
Though external risks remain elevated, their full impact may not materialise in FY26, Majumdar said, adding that the India-US trade deal is likely to conclude by the end of this fiscal, which should revive foreign investment and stabilise the currency.
Policy measures support growth
The report credited decisive policy moves in 2025, including tax exemptions, policy rate cuts and GST rationalisation, for driving growth by shoring up domestic demand and supporting the recovery.
Trade recalibration boosts exports
Favourable inflation trends added buoyancy, while trade recalibration through multiple FTAs strengthened exports, the report said.
Strategic trade partnerships highlighted
The business consultancy highlighted a strategic pivot in trade policy, with India signing agreements with the UK, New Zealand and Oman, operationalising the EFTA deal and initiating negotiations with Israel.
FDI seen as key driver
“These partnerships unlock manufacturing opportunities and expand India’s services footprint beyond the US, while reinforcing investor confidence and paving the way for increased FDI, which remains critical for financing infrastructure and industrial expansion,” Majumdar said.
Domestic indicators remain strong
Another recent report from a fund house cited 8.2 per cent GDP growth in Q2FY26, a sharp rebound in industrial output and stable GST collections as positives of domestic fundamentals.
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Supportive global trends
Softer crude prices, easing global rates and policy support through tax and GST cuts are expected to further support consumption and investment, the fund house predicted.
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