Mumbai: India's GDP is likely to range between a decline of 0.9% and a growth of 1.5% in the current financial year, with the economy undergoing a "turbulent" phase caused by the coronavirus-induced lockdown, says a report.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in a paper - A plan for economic recovery - has laid out its growth expectation under three scenarios and suggested "urgent" fiscal interventions.
In the baseline scenario, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at just 0.6% on an annual basis as economic activity is expected to remain constrained due to continuing restrictions on the free movement of goods and people beyond the lockdown period.
This will lead to disruption in supply chains, slow pick-up in investment activity, labour shortages in the short-run and muted consumption demand on account of reduced household incomes, the industry body said. In the optimistic scenario, which envisages a faster pick-up post the lockdown period, the GDP is forecast to register a growth of 1.5% in the best case.
In case of a more prolonged outbreak, where the restrictions in existing hotspot regions get extended, while new regions are identified as 'hot-spots' leading to intermittent stop and start in economic activity, GDP is likely to decline by -0.9%.
