MET Forecasts Normal Monsoon
As per the India Meteorological Department, India's South West Monsoon for 2021 is expected to be normal at 98% of the long-period average. A range of 96-104 % of the long-period average is considered as the normal monsoon.
The agency further predicted that, during the initial parts of the season, Northwestern states like Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana, and Eastern parts of the country are expected to witness some scarcity.
In its current estimate, MET has expressed a 61% probability of normal or above-normal rainfall this year. It will issue the stage two forecast in late May.
This will be the first normal monsoon in three years if this forecast comes true. The country has witnessed two above-average monsoon rainfall in the last two years.
A positive monsoon augurs well for the people who are dependent on agriculture for livelihood. Higher farm income boosts overall demand and business sentiment. This is welcome news for an economy that is currently facing a reduced level of activities.
Citi's Retreat
Citibank has announced its intention to exit the retail business in India and China along with a dozen other markets across Asia and EMEA.
In a statement, Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said the bank decided to exit as it lacked the scope to compete in these markets.
In India, Citi is operating with a small 35-branch network and is rapidly losing market share to local banks.
Not just Citi, all the foreign banks in India have similar stories. Owing to their inability to keep up with the pace of investment and growth, they have lost room to local banks. Between 2000 and 2020, foreign banks have lost their market share from 8.5% to just 4.2%.
Setback for the Global Vaccination Program
Amid the rising COVID-19 cases, India is facing a shortage of vaccines. This has forced India to curtail its export program. The country has also abruptly changed the rules and allowed the import of four COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik, and J&J.
India was earmarked to produce vaccines on a mass scale and be a key supplier to the poorest countries under WHO's COVID-19 eradication program.
But with daily infection cases counting over 2,00,000, the country is forced to abandon exports and turn into a net importer. It is a huge setback to the global vaccination efforts.
