Analysts caution that equities may trade choppy ahead of the June F&0 expiry. Greek debt payment to the IMF is scheduled for June 30

Mumbai : The fallout of the Greece debt crisis, progress of monsoon, further reforms and derivatives expiry will determine the Indian equities trajectory in the coming week, analysts said.

“Greece debt talks are very important. Not only the Indian, but the US, European and Asian markets will be closely monitoring the event. Any negative fallout will spook investors worldwide and lead to a global sell-off,” Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors, told IANS.  “Already the foreign investors have been on a selling spree in the past couple of weeks. This coming period will add a lot of anxiety,” Nevgi said.

 The data with the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), showed that the FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) off-loaded stocks worth Rs.3,232.55 crore or $504.74 million.  In May, FPIs had sold stocks worth nearly $3 billion.

The Greek debt payment to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is scheduled for June 30.

On June 4, Greece had deferred a payment of 300 million euros that was due to be paid to the IMF.  Nevgi elaborated that the relief that came from the dovish stand taken by the US Fed by deferring an interest rate hike might be off-set by the Greece debt crisis.

According to Dipen Shah, head of private client group research with Kotak Securities, another important trigger for the markets will be the monthly futures and options (F&O) expiry that is slated for Thursday.  “Previously, we have seen when the markets are volatile, the funds that are taken out after the expiry are not immediately invested back. So we have to wait and watch. It will all depend on the market condition and cues that the government gives,” Shah cited.

But rainy days will only bring back the confidence into the markets, pointed out Anand James, co-technical head for research with Geojit BNP Paribas.   “The next 10 days are important as they will give out a clear picture on the monsoon progress. The rains have progressed well for the initial 15 days , further good news will dilute the fears of a drought and raise hopes of rate cut,” James said.

The domestic institutional investors bought stocks worth Rs.4,557.94 crore. On weekly basis, Sensex and Nifty have gone up by 890.83 points and 242.05 points, respectively, snapping their 3-week losing streak.

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