Global growth may shrink to 1% in 2020

New Delhi: Following the coronavirus pandemic, global growth? may shrink to 1% in 2020, down from 2.3% before the outbreak started, as four major economies -- Japan, Italy, Germany, France -- are likely to experience a full-year recession, says a report.

According to The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the situation appears grim in most countries around the world.

As per its assumption, the virus will infect around 50% of the world population; 20% of the cases will be severe, and 1-3% will result in deaths.

"Global growth will stand at 1% for 2020, down from 2.3% before the outbreak started. This is the lowest rate in global growth since the global financial crisis," The EIU said adding that at least four G7 countries will experience a full-year recession (Japan, Italy, Germany, France).

The EIU has revised the US growth forecast downwards to 1% for 2020. It has also dragged China's growth to around 2% in 2020 following the release of bleak industrial output data for January and February.

It further noted that the euro zone will register a full-year recession (-0.5%).

As per the report, though quarantine measures will be effective to prevent the disease from spreading, but they will have a high economic impact on both supply and demand conditions.

On global trade The EIU said: "We have made a downward revision to global trade growth for 2020, to 0.4% (from 2.3% previously)".

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