FY13 GDP growth estimate cut to 4.5% from 5% earlier

NEW DELHI :  The Central Statistics Office trimmed its estimate on India’s gross domestic product growth in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) to 4.5% from 5.0% earlier. The revision is primarily on account of a sharp upward correction in the base year. The GDP growth at 4.5% is the lowest since 2002-03 (Apr-Mar), when the economy had expanded 4.0%.

The CSO, which released the first revised estimate on national income in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar), also revised the estimates for 2011-12 and 2010-11. It raised the growth estimate for 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) to 6.7% from 6.2%, but lowered 2010-11 (Apr-Mar) estimate to 8.9 from 9.3%.

According to CSO data, the growth in the agriculture sector in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) was cut to 1.4% from 1.9% earlier. Growth in services sector during the fiscal was reduced marginally to 7.0%, compared with 7.1% provisional estimate. Industry growth in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) was scaled sharply down to 1.0% from 2.1%.

The CSO had initially estimated the GDP growth in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) at 5.0% in February last year. It will release the first estimate on the GDP growth for 2013-14 (Apr-Mar) on Feb 7.

The Reserve Bank of India in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Report, released on Tuesday, estimated the GDP growth in 2013-14 to be slightly lower than 5.0%.

In the first half of 2013-14 (Apr-Mar), the economy grew 4.6%, compared with 5.3% in the same period of the last fiscal.     -Cogencis