FOMC meeting and Russia-Ukraine issue will be key global factors this week Indian equity markets rebound after a continuous fall for four weeks thanks to some positive news flows on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, BJP victory in four states, cool off in crude oil prices, and selling exhaustion.
There are still uncertainties on the Russia-Ukraine issue while we will have an important FOMC meeting outcome on March 16, amid hyperinflation.
Crude prices, FIIs to be triggers
Amid all, crude oil prices and FIIs' behavior will be important triggers to drive the Indian market in a truncated week. On the domestic front, we will have our inflation numbers that will be announced on March 14.
If we talk about the derivative data then FIIs' long exposure in the index future stands at 43 percent which is still in negative territory whereas the put-call ratio has improved to 1.03 level. If we look at the OI distribution chart then 17,000 is looking a crucial hurdle.
Nifty at 17,000 levels can come back into game aggressively
Technically, Nifty witnessed a smart pullback from the 167,00 level and witnessed bullish engulfing candlestick formation on the weekly chart that is a positive sign however 16,800-17,000 is a critical supply zone because it is a cluster of 20 and200-DMA.
Bulls have to take Nifty above the 17,000 level to come back aggressively in the game otherwise there is a risk that bears may again become active where 16,300-16,250 will be an immediate and critical support zone then 16,000-15,500 will be the next support area.
Bank Nifty also witnessed a smart pullback however 35,500/36,000/36,500 are important resistance levels and it has to cross 36,500 level for any meaningful reversal. On the downside, 34,000 is an immediate support level while 33,000-32,500 is the next support area.
(Santosh Meena is Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.)
