Global crude oil prices declined on Thursday as investors assessed diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation of the Middle East conflict.
While Brent Crude slipped 1.1% to $114, WTI fell 1.4% to $101.30 per barrel. The decline followed weekly gains of 3.19% and 3.31%, respectively, as geopolitical tensions continued to influence energy markets.
Investors monitored reports of diplomatic contacts involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian national security official Mohsen Rezaei.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that negotiations were taking place through mediators but acknowledged uncertainty over their outcome.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also indicated Tehran's willingness to pursue diplomatic solutions.
However, concerns over potential supply disruptions prevented a sharper decline in oil prices.
Tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces, alongside threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, continued to support prices.
Despite Thursday's losses, West Texas Intermediate crude had gained more than 14% during October, while Brent had risen over 17%.
Although regional energy shipments had recovered close to pre-war levels, the possibility of renewed disruptions remained a concern.
World Bank Forecasts Brent Crude At $91
The World Bank projected a 23% increase in global commodity prices during 2026, with energy prices expected to rise 32% amid conflict-related disruptions.
Its latest Commodity Markets Outlook forecast Brent crude averaging $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027.
Overall commodity prices are projected to decline 7% next year.
The World Bank warned that depleted inventories had increased market vulnerability to additional supply shocks.
Global oil production is expected to decline 5.2% in 2026, the steepest fall in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession.
Meanwhile, oil consumption is projected to contract 2.5% because of elevated prices, shortages and growing electrification, particularly in China.
With production expected to remain below demand, further withdrawals from oil inventories could be necessary.
