Mumbai: A major alert has emerged regarding crude oil prices, with reports suggesting strong fluctuations in the coming months. Prices could rise sharply, especially during April and May 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and possible supply disruptions. In extreme cases, crude oil prices may even touch USD 150 per barrel.
At present, the global market is focused on whether oil prices will continue rising or start falling. Different global agencies and brokerage firms have shared mixed views, but most agree on one trend—sharp short-term gains followed by a possible decline later.
Short-Term Outlook: High Volatility Ahead
The near-term outlook appears heated. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to remain around USD 95 per barrel or higher during this period. Goldman Sachs estimates that if supply disruptions continue, especially around key routes like Hormuz, prices may average close to USD 110 per barrel.
Some private forecasts go even further, suggesting prices could move between USD 110 and USD 130 per barrel. This indicates that the April–June period may see high volatility and sharp price movements.
Can Prices Really Hit USD 150?
There are also extreme or 'tail-risk' scenarios being discussed. If the situation in the Middle East worsens significantly or oil supply is severely disrupted, prices could spike up to USD 150 per barrel.
However, experts clarify that this is not the base case. It is a worst-case or shock scenario, which would only happen if geopolitical conditions deteriorate sharply.
Why Prices May Fall Later?
Despite the current bullish outlook, prices may ease in the second half of 2026. Goldman Sachs expects average prices around USD 85 per barrel, while HSBC sees them near USD 80. Some estimates by J.P. Morgan and the EIA suggest prices could fall to USD 60–65 per barrel.
The key reason is expected growth in global supply. Countries like the US and Brazil may increase production, while OPEC+ could also raise output. Additionally, if geopolitical tensions reduce, pressure on prices may ease.
The Real Drivers Behind Oil Prices
The crude oil market currently depends on two main factors—geopolitical tension and global supply. If tensions in the Middle East escalate and disrupt supply routes, prices will rise sharply. On the other hand, if global production increases, prices are likely to fall.
In simple terms, the market is currently balancing between fear and supply.
