According to S&P Global Market Intelligence's most recent Global Commerce Monitor study, India among the top 10 economies has the most promising prospects for international trade and does not appear to be significantly affected by the global economic slowdown.
The top 10 economies by GDP in 202, according to the report, include the US, EU27, mainland China, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, and Russia. These countries are responsible for approximately four-fifths of the world GDP and three-quarters of global exports, with most trade carried out within the group.
The section in the report on expectations for international trade in the next months said the global economic slowdown now is more and more visible.
Monthly historical data clearly show that in the top ten economies, exports are primarily impacted by a slowing in the majority of the group's economies.
"The picture is slightly more optimistic for imports, yet the situation is expected to deteriorate in the forthcoming months for both exports and imports, which is reflected in the most recent PMI NExO readouts," the report said.
The consequences of the global economic slowdown are not that apparent in the monthly data for 2022 as in the first three quarters of the year, the dynamics of exports and imports were relatively strong in the top 10 economies.
"This should translate into continued positive growth in 2022 from a yearly perspective, but global trade contraction is possible in 2023." "GTAS Forecasting anticipates that trade will begin to recover in 2024, returning to a long-term stable growth path," it added.
On economic growth, the report said the months ahead will likely bring recessions in Europe, the US, Canada, and parts of Latin America. With moderate growth in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, the world economy can avoid a downturn, but growth will be minimal.
Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.9 percent in 2021 to 2.8 percent current year and 1.4 percent in 2023. Notably, S&P Global Market Intelligence revised down the 2023 growth rate 0.6 percentage point from the last month's forecast.
With inputs from Agencies
