Over 90 per cent of lenders (by AUM) expects the credit costs to remain stable or increase further over FY2021 levels
Over 90 per cent of lenders (by AUM) expects the credit costs to remain stable or increase further over FY2021 levels

Around 42 per cent of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) expect a growth of more than 15 per cent in their asset under management (AUM) in fiscal 2021-22, says an ICRA Ratings survey.

The findings are based on a survey of 65 non-bank lenders, constituting around 60 per cent of the industry AUM.

The agency conducted the survey to understand the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on these entities and their expectations going forward.

It said NBFCs growth expectations have moderated vis-a-vis the expectations six months earlier. This follows the possible impact of Covid-19 second wave on business in Q1 FY2022.

"While 42 per cent of the issuers (NBFCs by number) are expecting a more than 15 per cent growth in AUM in FY2022, the proportion based on AUM weights is much lower at 8 per cent, indicating that larger players in the segment expect a relatively moderate growth in FY2022," the agency's Vice President (Financial Sector Ratings) Manushree Saggar said.

With most of the non-bank lenders (74 per cent in AUM terms) indicating an up to 10 per cent AUM growth, the agency expects the growth for the overall industry to be about 7-9 per cent for FY2022.

Within the non-bank finance sector, segments like MFIs, SME-focussed NBFCs and affordable housing finance would continue to record much higher growth than the overall industry averages, supported by good demand and lower base, she said.

The survey said with gradual easing of lockdowns and moderation in fresh cases of Covid-19 and with increased vaccination coverage, the lenders are optimistic on growth pick-up in balance part of FY2022 and expect it to be higher than the growth seen in FY2021.

However, the non-bank finance companies are expecting the asset quality related pain to persist in the current fiscal as well, it showed.

"Overall, 87 per cent of issuers (by AUM) expect reported gross stage 3/ NPAs to be either same or higher than March 2021 levels, which in turn will keep the credit costs elevated," it said.

Over 90 per cent of lenders (by AUM) expects the credit costs to remain stable or increase further over FY2021 levels.

On the restructuring front, while lenders are expecting marginally higher numbers as compared to the last fiscal, the overall numbers are expected to be low, the agency said.

Saggar said with no blanket moratorium and reflecting the stress on the cash flows of the underlying borrowers, mid-sized lenders (AUM between Rs 5,000-Rs 20,000 crore) are expecting a higher share of restructuring under Restructuring 2.0.

"Overall, the restructured book of non-bank finance entities is expected to double to 3.1-3.3 per cent in March 2022 from 1.6 per cent in March 2021," Saggar added.

The agency said a significantly higher number of issuers (56 per cent) are expecting to raise capital in FY2022 as compared to the earlier survey, wherein only 28 per cent of the issuers were expected capital raise in FY2022.

It expects the pre-tax profitability for non-bank finance companies in FY2022 to remain similar to the last fiscal which was around 30 per cent lower than the pre Covid-19 levels.

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