The big question this week in Maharashtra is whether there is a new political equation emerging in the state between the BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray over the upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) polls. Many say both sides of the political divide are of the view that this process should be made unopposed, similar to the recent Rajya Sabha elections for six seats, which saw cooperation between the ruling and opposition sides in the state legislature. There are nine seats of the State Legislative Council for which nominations will be filed in the first week of May, and in case more than nine nominations come, voting will happen on May 12 at Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai.
Speculation over unopposed polls
The buzz in regional media and among party activists is that there have been some negotiations between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the BJP to make this an unopposed poll process so that there are only nine nominations and every candidate is declared elected unopposed. But have such talks really happened? Will the election to the MLC seats happen unopposed? If the answers to these questions are positive, it would certainly kick-start a new phase of cooperation between former alliance partners, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the BJP, who have been at loggerheads since 2019.
Seat arithmetic and party strategies
The ruling BJP-led Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi are keenly contesting the MLC elections with all their strategies in place. The quota for each seat of the MLC is 29 votes from the State Assembly, which means that to win a single seat in the State Council a political outfit needs 29 MLAs voting in its favour. This electoral equation makes it clear that the BJP can get five MLC seats, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena can get two seats, while the NCP will get one seat and the Maha Vikas Aghadi is left with an MLA quota worth only one MLC seat. As long as every party files only the same number of nominations that they are likely to win, surely the election process will go unopposed. Such a process was seen happening in the recent Rajya Sabha polls too in the state, and Sharad Pawar won as Maha Vikas Aghadi's lone candidate. Six Members of the Rajya Sabha were elected unopposed with nobody filing nominations beyond their stipulated quota. Now many are wondering whether the same will happen with the MLC polls.
Uddhav Thackeray’s possible candidature
Shiv Sena insiders say that Uddhav Thackeray has made it clear that he will file the nomination only if the election process is ensured to be unopposed. Who can ensure this? Most agree that it is only the BJP that can ensure that the MLC poll process happens unopposed. It is only the BJP which can take a call that they will not file more nominations beyond their stipulated quota, and only they can put pressure on somebody like Eknath Shinde to do the same, as reports started emerging on Monday that Shinde's Shiv Sena was likely to file a 10th nomination, making polling on May 12 mandatory.
Denials and political signals
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis vehemently denied reports on Marathi digital media platforms that he had a secret late-night meeting with Uddhav Thackeray last week; however, regional media, both conventional and digital, are full of speculation about what is transpiring between the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray. Have there been some discussions through emissaries about making the nomination process unopposed? Has there been an agreement that the BJP will "cooperate" for Uddhav Thackeray's unopposed entry into the State Legislative Council? The answer to this question will be revealed only when Uddhav Thackeray files his nomination or the Shiv Sena announces that he has decided not to do so. This is likely to happen before the deadline of May 4, 2026. But if Uddhav files his nomination, it will straight away mean that he has got some assurance from the BJP-led Mahayuti that the MLC election will be unopposed. If this happens, it will mark a new phase in Maharashtra’s politics, with some level of cooperation between the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray's party.
Changing equations with Shinde
All these developments must be seen with a larger perspective. The relations between the BJP and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde are fast changing. Insiders are talking about the changing equation between Shinde and the BJP, about how and why both these parties clashed on the field in the Satara district during the recent district council, or zilla parishad, polls. Shinde's minister and leader from Satara, Shambhuraj Desai, even got physically injured in the clashes ahead of the polling in this western Maharashtra district.
That Shinde's ambitions are growing is no secret. Shinde sees himself as an emerging strong Maratha face who can quickly fill the vacuum created by the obvious decline of the Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP. Shinde's party is busy projecting their leader as the next big "Maratha Strongman" in the four districts of Western Maharashtra, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, and Pune.
Obviously, the BJP, which has been eyeing the cash-rich political turf of western Maharashtra, is not comfortable with this. They want Shinde with them, but they also want to control his growth in regions beyond Konkan and the Mumbai Metro Region, or MMR. It is very clear and obvious that the BJP is now looking at Eknath Shinde as a competitor in the Hindutva space and may want to counter him in the field as well as in the state legislature. One of the ways the BJP can achieve this is by empowering Uddhav Thackeray, and many say the process of the BJP empowering Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena may commence in the near future.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
