It is easy to dismiss the craze among sections of young voters of Tamil Nadu to look up to superstar Rajinikanth to make his foray into the state elections next year, as a result of their obsession with cinema since the days of M G Ramachandran (MGR) and later, J Jayalalithaa, who dominated the scene till their demise.
But it is also because of their disenchantment with the existing Dravidian parties, given their track record in misgovernance and corruption.
The vacuum in the state’s political scenario after the exit of stalwarts, including M Karunanidhi, has also meant that a younger lot of voters is not left with much choice when dynastic politics, corruption, and different shades of political obscurantism have thrived in the name of Tamil pride.
It is an accepted fact that many young voters are not enthused by the existing lot of players including Karunanidhi’s son and DMK chief M K Stalin, possibly the most fancied to win the next polls.
The anti-incumbency factors working against the ruling AIADMK dispensation, which is led by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and his deputy O Panneerselvam (OPS), have forced an uneasy arrangement between factions since Jayalalithaa’s untimely demise and her aide Sasikala Natarajan's incarceration following her conviction in a disproportionate assets case being upheld by the Supreme Court.
Her jail term is due to end early next year, ahead of the TN polls due in April-May. She is the aunt of T T V Dhinakaran, who runs a band of hard-core Sasikala loyalists under the banner of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
Even as EPS may be seen as making up for the lost time to shore up on his governance record by massive doses of largesse to different sections of voters, the DMK has been trying to woo young voters by projecting Stalin’s actor-cum-producer son Udayanidhi as the heir-apparent.
The entry of actor Kamal Haasan and his political formation Makkal Nidhi Maiam (MNM) did evoke a lot of interest before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the parliamentary elections, the MNM’s debut did see the fledgling party pick up 3.75-3.80 per cent votes.
But the MNM’s political thought process, which is a mixture of anti-BJP posturing, social reformist Periyar’s ideas and Left-driven agenda, has so far not exactly set the state on fire— in providing an alternative to the voters.
With youths accounting for more than 50 per cent of Tamil Nadu voters, it is Rajinikanth’s every word and move that has caught attention now and then, even though he has postponed his plans several times since he announced he would fight the 2021 elections way back in December 2017. So much so, Rajinikanth’s Hamletian dilemma had an exasperated BJP finally seeing merit in shaking hands with a divided AIADMK, rather than wait for the superstar to provide the fulcrum for creation of a third front to provide an alternative to the Dravidian parties.
When Union Home Minister Amit Shah went to Chennai on November 21 to meet BJP cadres to discuss their campaign strategies for the elections, EPS and OPS said to have pre-empted Shah from charting an independent course for TN BJP. They unilaterally announced the “continuation” of an “old” alliance between the BJP and the AIADMK, days after both parties appeared to be at loggerheads at the state-level. It is no secret that the survival of the AIADMK regime has been largely contingent on the Centre’s friendly view towards it.
It is also no secret that the BJP has been wooing Rajinikanth assiduously for some months to take the plunge to prevent the DMK from sweeping the assembly polls, especially after its alliance performed outstandingly in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 38 of the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu.
It is this context that Rajinikanth’s exercise of asking his outfit Rajini Makkal Mandram and its district secretaries and office-bearers if they were ready to "start a political party in January" at a meeting in Chennai on November 30 has drawn much traction.
His announcement later that he would take a decision soon came against the backdrop of doctors advising him against entering politics in view of his health condition and the prevailing pandemic situation. The 69-year-old superstar of Tamil cinema was apparently told by his officials that he would have a good chance of winning if he started his political journey as soon as possible.
Significantly, only a month ago, Rajinikanth had stated that he had been advised against entering politics by doctors as he had undergone a kidney transplant in 2016 and due to the coronavirus pandemic. This disclosure of his health status indicated he was willing to miss the bus again though he had set up the Rajini Makkal Mandram as a 'launch vehicle' to float his political party ahead of the 2021 elections.
But, as his deliberations at Chennai’s Raghavendra Kalyana Mandapam showed on November 30, Rajnikanth knows that he won’t get another window again to launch his party. He can still play the role that his political friends as well as his fans want him to play by relying on modern technology for his campaign without undertaking strenuous tours to project his brand of “spiritual politics.”
Rajinikanth’s famous lines of December 2017 still echo among the young fans who recall his words. He had said, “I will enter politics and launch a party to serve the people of Tamil Nadu, as the (political) system in Tamil Nadu has been ruined.”
Of course, this depends on Rajinikanth’s ability to recreate the magic of 1996. At that time, his punchline was that “even God cannot save Tamil Nadu" if the AIADMK comes back to power. His clarion call resulted in Jayalalitha’s humiliating defeat. The DMK-Tamil Maanila Congress alliance swept to power, thanks to him.
This time, his political friends, particularly the BJP, would want Rajinikanth to make the foray, if not to win the elections, then to at least prevent the DMK and its allies from sweeping the elections.
The writer is a former Senior Associate Editor of Hindustan Times and Political Editor of Deccan Herald, New Delhi
