US Vice President and the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 presidential election Kamala Harris has picked the relatively unknown Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz was in the running for a week or so, along with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro who looked like the more desirable candidate since his state is possibly the most important constituency that could decide this year’s results.
American presidential election results are based on the electoral college system. Each state is allocated a number of electoral college delegates, depending on its number of US Representatives (equivalent to a Lok Sabha MP in India) and the two senators. California, for example, has 54 votes. Texas has 40. On the other hand, Vermont has just three. The candidate that wins the state’s popular vote is declared the outright winner and is allotted the state’s electoral college votes. Whoever wins 270 or more votes, is declared the President.
To be sure, you can lose the overall popular vote across the country, and still become President because you could win key states with more votes. This is exactly what happened in November 2016 when Donald Trump polled 63 million votes, three million fewer than Hillary Clinton, and yet became President because he won key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. In 2020, Trump lost both the popular vote as well as the electoral college. This time round, Joe Biden won the exact same swing states, and comprehensively defeated his Republican Party rival in the electoral college. In terms of popular vote, Biden had won 81 million to Trump’s 74 million.
It was important to contextualise the swing states in the choice of Harris’ running mate. Pennsylvania, with 19 votes could turn out to be the most important state in a tight race. Three other swing states — Arizona (11), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) — are key regions that could decide the election, and consequently America’s future. Nevada (6) and Georgia (16) are two other swing states. Together, the swing states command 77 electoral college votes. Because Pennsylvania holds a disproportionately outsize influence, Shapiro, who is quite popular there, may have been the obvious choice. However, Harris went with Walz.
Why? My Washington DC sources told me that Shapiro, in his meeting with Harris on Sunday, demanded a bigger role in decision-making if she wins the presidency. The Vice President does not have a substantial role in administration in the US, and is called upon only when the President is incapacitated. In the US Senate, the VP is the chairperson, and can be asked to cast her deciding vote in case of a tie in passing a legislation. There are other responsibilities, of course, but nothing much of consequence. Harris found herself in this position with Biden. Though there was no acrimony between the two, Harris had a rather cold chemistry with her boss, and Biden hardly called on her for the bigger decisions. Shapiro wanted to change this.
Two, Walz is relatable. He served in the US Army for 24 years; he was a high school teacher and later a football coach. He served in the US Congress for 12 years before becoming a two-time governor of Minnesota. He was also endorsed by the United Auto Workers, one of the largest workers’ unions in the US. His CV, therefore, is exactly what Harris wants to win Middle America votes.
Three, the Minnesota man is a popular two-term governor. He has been passing legislation, including an abortion law, that has endeared himself to progressives.
And then, there’s the chemistry. Walz and Harris get along like a house on fire, and this rubs off on their supporters who have thronged to all of their rallies by the thousands, with several thousands more waiting outside the venue to get in. Walz’s folksy oratory — as compared to the urbane Shapiro who sounds exactly like a vocal doppelganger of former President Barack Obama — has endeared himself to the Democratic base just two days into his announcement.
There could be a deal between Harris and Shapiro, who has promised to campaign wholeheartedly in Pennsylvania for the ticket despite losing the VP role. Sources suggest that Shapiro could get Secretary of State if he delivers the state to the Democrats.
The last 72 hours have been a complete turnaround for the Democrats, thanks to Walz’s selection. He has brought back the energy needed for the Democrats to not only compete against the Trump-Vance ticket, but also has given them the hope of victory. There is a slew of opinion polls expected to be released over the weekend that could demonstrate this.
The other impact that Walz’s selection has had is that the Trump campaign has been caught unawares; there seems to be no coherent response other than accusing him of being “very liberal”. Admittedly in the world of Trump’s Republican base, “liberal” is a far greater insult than being called “Satan”. Yet, in the larger context of the election, there has no damage so far.
In his interview with Harris, Walz apparently told her that he is happy to play second fiddle in terms of responsibilities while he will push himself to get the necessary votes from the swing states. As per plan, the two have been touring these battleground states since the announcement. By the time the Democratic National Convention takes place in Chicago later this month, they would have toured at least four or five of the battleground states.
Trump and Vance, meanwhile, will have to regroup. The next 89 days are when the elections are going to be won and lost.
Sachin Kalbag, Senior Fellow at The Takshashila Institution, is a former Washington Correspondent and editor of Indian newspapers. Email: sachin@takshashila.org.in. Twitter: @SachinKalbag
