The politics of Goa, the tiny coastal state of India with just 40 assembly seats is becoming vastly interesting every day. Earlier, the key players in Goan politics were the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, along with regional players like the Goa Forward Party and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party. But now, there are several new entrants, the Aam Aadmi Party which has been working on the ground for the past several years, the Trinamool Congress which has landed in the state just a few months before the elections and now the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (it had one MLA earlier) have also reached Goa.
During the last few months after the TMC-led by Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee entered Goan politics, the state has witnessed a series of defections from several parties. To talk about defection in Goan politics blaming just the TMC would not be the right thing because changing boats has been a common phenomenon in Goan politics. Around 50 per cent of the current MLAs in the Goa assembly has changed political parties in the last five years.
Meanwhile, despite speculation, the opposition unity in Goa failed. A few weeks ago, the TMC’s Goa in-charge, MP Mahua Moitra, suddenly gave a call to the Congress for an alliance. Thereafter, NCP chief Sharad Pawar confirmed that his party and the Shiv Sena are trying to build opposition unity in the state. However, the talks failed.
The 2024 general election is not very far; therefore,to defeatthe BJP, opposition parties should come together as no single political party will be able to defeat Narendra Modi. And all the non-BJP political parties present in Goa have been talking about such an alliance for a long time but what they are offering to the people of Goa is the complete opposite.This is why the opposition should consider Goa as their masterclass before the 2024 election. They must learn and reflect but before that, let us look into the key learning outcomes from Goa.
Poaching & alliance talks cannot happen together
The politics of poaching has become a normal phenomenon right now but this is an extremely evil approach. The Trinamool Congress started its journey in the state of Goa by bringing in Congress MLA Luizinho Faleiro and now, the same party has approached the Congress Party for an alliance. This is indeed bizarre.
The opposition political parties must learn that breaking the Congress and then at the end of the day proposing an alliance with them will not work in the coming days. And even if it does work, then the future of such an alliance will always be under question. It is impossible to run a government with such a trust deficiency.
Congress should remove its high hat
The unhappiness of the Congress with the Trinamool Congress because of the poaching is understandable. But the Congress failing to form an alliance with the Shiv Sena and the NCP, which are mostly non-existent in the Goan politics, shows the political high handedness of the party.
There is no point in repeating about the reducing vote share of the Congress party across India and infighting. But despite these actualities, the ego of the Congress Party is invincible. With this ego, the party can only finish itself but cannot form an alliance that can defeat the PM Narendra Modi-led BJP.
Meanwhile, both the Congress Party and TMC are presenting half-truths in front of the people and blaming each other. It’s high time these political parties understood that after all these blame games, if at all they come together before 2024, then people will not trust them.
Alliance should not be taken for granted
For all the non-BJP political parties, it is a reality check that an alliance in one state or more does not mean by default a grand alliance at the national level or in another state. The Shiv Sena and the NCP thought that because they were in an alliance in Maharashtra it could be easily replicated in Goa but that did not happen. The situation tells us that taking any alliance for granted will not work. The same applies to the TMC. If they want to fight the BJP, then Mamata Banerjee must clarify whether she wants to go with the Congress or not.
Friends are needed in politics
According to all the recent opinion polls, no political party in Goa will have the strength to form a majority government. However, according to these opinion polls, the AAP, led by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, is likely to become a major player in Goa. This means that the anti-BJP votes will be majorly divided between the Congress and the AAP.
In such a case, to form a government against the BJP, the AAP will need the help of the Congress or if needed, other anti-BJP political parties. One of the key drawbacks of Kejriwal’s style of politics is that he has very few friends in politics and the AAP is very unsatisfactory at negotiations.
For the AAP, both the Congress and BJP are enemies. Kejriwal used to share a good equation with TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee but where they will stand after the results of the Goa election bears watching. Lastly, political negotiation is an art and for sustainability, the AAP will have to work on this aspect of politics.
There is no room for lazy politics
Any political party can decide to fight from anywhere in India. But the universal ground rule is that the party should work from the grassroots to develop a strong organisation in the state it wants to fight an election. There is no alternative to grassroots politics in India.If political parties like Trinamool Congress believe that just hiring a poll management organisation like IPAC and a strategist like Prashant Kishor will bring them victory without doing the groundwork, it is a utopian belief. Looking at the TMC’s Goa venture, which it suddenly embarked on just thre emonths before the election, it seems like the party is indulging in lazy politics. And this is absolutely not a good sign for the image of the party supremo Mamata Banerjee, who is considered as one of the best street fighters in Indian politics.
(The writer is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and former policy research fellow, at Delhi Assembly Research Centre. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are personal.)
