There is no saying whether Trump has touched a chord among a sufficiently large number who not only buy his message but are also sufficiently against Clinton and the Democrats. They don’t care for his warts – he articulates what they think but feel that they cannot say because of political correctness gone berserk. His messaging and actions – getting an African American thrown out of his rally, rudely speaking to female anchors – only enhance his appeal among this lot. The big question is – are they sufficient in number to finally push him through?
In less than a week from now, the world’s most powerful nation will have a new President. Or not. Though the elections will be held on November 8 and the results should be in by later that day, Republican nominee Donald Trump has indicated that he may or may not accept them. If indeed he carries out that threat, and mounts a legal challenge, there could be a constitutional crisis. Sixteen years ago George W Bush was declared the victor, but Al Gore felt the results were not so clear cut but he conceded, thus putting any contentious arguments to rest. Trump, with his belligerent personality, may not be as gracious.
Of course, in case he wins or there is a landslide in favour of Hillary Clinton, that may not happen. Trump will then have no basis for refusing to accept the results; but if it is a very close call, then there is no saying what he would do. (There are other candidates in the fray too, from an independent to a Libertarian to a Green Party member too, but they don’t stand much of a chance, given the dominance of the two big parties.
Keeping the potential controversies aside, it is safe to say that a new President will be elected and the whole process will go through without a hiccup. That will bring one of the most bruising election campaigns to an end, a campaign full of name calling, below the belt blows and charges of corruption, sexual harassment, tax avoidance and worse being hurled by the candidates. Most of this barrage of outrageous comments has come from the Trump side and far from affecting his popularity, his attraction has only grown. From early on, when he began by calling Mexicans as rapists and declared he wouldn’t allow Muslims to come to the US anymore, he has been gathering support, and from one of the many hopefuls for the nomination of the Republican party, he emerged as the candidate, surprising and shocking everybody.
Hillary Clinton on the other hand has been in the public eye for a long time, first as a governor’s wife, then as the First Lady and then as the Secretary of State. In all of them she has stood out as a strong personality with personal dignity and grace. But there are allegations of her using her family server for official emails, and thereby sending confidential emails from a
personal account. She has not been indicted, much less found guilty but those allegations have proved damaging. Besides, charges that she gets a lot of money from corporates for speaking assignments – which is not illegal in any way – have swirled around her. Balancing that is her experience in global affairs, which is a must for anyone who will be ensconced in the White House.
Voters however are strange, individually and in aggregate and no one knows which way they will finally lean. In the run up to Brexit in Britain, pundits and politicians had assumed that the country would reject any proposal to leave the European Union. But such was the undercurrent of hostility towards the EU and anger about immigration etc that they got swayed by the UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) making all kinds of tall claims that were patently false and eventually voted for Brexit.
Similarly, there is no saying whether Trump has touched a chord among a sufficiently large number who not only buy his message about immigration and other issues but are also sufficiently against Clinton and the Democrats. Their alienation from all that Clinton represents could push them towards Trump. They don’t care for his warts – he articulates what they think but feel that they cannot say because of political correctness gone berserk. His messaging and actions – getting an African American thrown out of his rally, rudely speaking to female anchors – only enhance his appeal among this lot. The big question is – are they sufficient in number to finally push him through?
If he does win, it will be quite an upset. Polls have been indicating that Clinton is ahead and should not have too much of a problem sailing through. He has pushed his rhetoric of hatred too far and now there are credible charges of his sexual misconduct. There could be a strong anti-Trump vote, coming from migrants, women and minorities. There is also the opportunity for Americans to make history by electing the first ever woman President. Her own competence and grit could count in her favour.
But predictions have a way of going horribly wrong. Not just Americans, but the world is looking on with trepidation. Trump, with all his loose talk and bombastic rhetoric, in charge of the planet’s biggest economy and a finger on the nuclear button is a prospect that unnerves a lot of people. His actions will have consequences far beyond his immediate nation. Will the American people decide to put him in the Oval Office?
