Many must have missed a small news item that appeared in the media last week, mentioning how Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde visited New Delhi to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah but had to return despite waiting for a full day without that meeting. This must be one of the rarest of rare occasions when Shinde travelled all the way to New Delhi but was denied a meeting with the BJP top brass. Obviously, something is not right, and perhaps some political equations are changing within the Mahayuti government in Maharashtra.
Whenever there is a coalition government in power, either in the state or at the Centre, there is media speculation about how the relationship between the coalition partners changes over time. The players always pretend that everything is alright and all is well; however, experienced observers can figure out how the relations keep changing all the time, and sometimes they reach a boiling point.
MLC seat-sharing sparks tensions
What we see happening in Maharashtra right now is related to the election to 17 seats of the Maharashtra Legislative Council. The gist is that Shinde wanted a quota of at least seven to eight out of the 17 seats, but it was reduced to four seats in the seat distribution for the MLC polls within the Mahayuti alliance.
Abdul Sattar, a prominent leader from the Marathwada region of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, publicly made a statement claiming that "the BJP was out to sever the limbs of the Shiv Sena"; this caused a lot of flutter in political circles, and it became very obvious that some kind of political rivalry, if not a political war, is brewing between the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena over the election of 17 MLC seats in Maharashtra.
But the point to note is that this cold war or rivalry is not limited just to this MLC election. It has many other angles, and some leaders of the Shiv Sena are now speaking about the two Shiv Sena factions joining hands and the possibility of Eknath Shinde's party even cutting ties with the BJP.
Shinde’s expansion plans and BJP concerns
We assume things may not extend to that level as of now, but the chatter has made it clear that the BJP now thinks that Shinde might be its biggest rival in the 2029 Lok Sabha as well as Vidhan Sabha polls in Maharashtra.
Eknath Shinde's ambitions are not hidden. As the NCP seems to be on the decline, especially in western Maharashtra, Eknath Shinde's party seems to be quickly trying to fill the vacuum there. Shinde, himself a Maratha, wants to be the next "Maratha strongman" in western Maharashtra, and perhaps the rest of Maharashtra too.
The way he quickly recruited farmer leader and former MLA Bacchu Kadu to his party was seen as an indication of Shinde wanting to expand his political influence not just in western Maharashtra but all the way to Vidarbha. The BJP is getting uncomfortable with this.
Another big aspect is that Eknath Shinde's home base, Thane district and Mumbai, are the BJP's big target areas for the 2029 polls. Several political clashes have been reported between Eknath Shinde’s team and local BJP leaders in Thane, Dombivli, Kalyan and other areas.
Competition within the alliance
The BJP leadership and Shinde work together in the same government in Mumbai, but they are very uncomfortable watching each other's growth in the MMR region. It is very clear that the BJP is comfortable now with alliance partners who are from the non-Hindutva space, such as the NCP, but Eknath Shinde clearly claims the Hindutva space, and that makes the BJP uncomfortable.
It is interesting to note that in the last MLC elections, the quota was from Maharashtra Assembly or MLA seats. In that election, the BJP preferred to have an understanding with its alliance partners, and the entire election happened unopposed.
However, for the 17 MLC seats now, the quota is from local self-government bodies, that is, municipal corporations. There, the BJP is in no mood to make any compromises or take its alliance partners along. The BJP feels that it has to keep its party cadre happy at the grassroots level and give them as many opportunities as possible at the municipal corporation level in Thane, Mumbai, Nagpur and other places.
A changing political equation ahead of 2029
The BJP is now carefully trying to balance the act of cooperating with alliance partner Shiv Sena at the state headquarters in Mantralaya and the Vidhan Sabha and, at the same time, competing with it at the municipal corporation and zilla parishad levels. It is a tricky move by the BJP, which clearly shows its ambition of fighting alone in the 2029 Lok Sabha as well as Assembly elections in Maharashtra.
Eknath Shinde is not seen speaking against the BJP openly. In fact, he keeps praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah in all his public communication, but his deputies, such as Abdul Sattar and Gulabrao Patil, are seen openly criticising the BJP in their regional bastions.
Where all this will lead is anybody's guess. It does not look like Eknath Shinde will walk out of the alliance as of now, but it is very clear that in the next two years or so he might have some ideas and may take the BJP head-on.
The way Shinde is expanding his party in western Maharashtra, recruiting people from the NCP, and also expanding in Vidarbha, recruiting people from independent parties, is an indication of what plans he has.
Maharashtra may see a completely different political equation emerging in the next couple of years ahead of the 2029 polls if Shinde and the BJP continue on this current path.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
