Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest the Lok Sabha seat from Wayanad in Kerala in addition to the Amethi seat in Uttar Pradesh will evidently secure his entry into Parliament in the upcoming elections. But the decision is not without its flip side.
It is being used by the BJP to tell the people that the Congress bigwig chickened out of relying wholly on Amethi because of his fear that he may have to bite dust due to the concerted campaign of BJP candidate Smriti Irani who has been a relentless fighter in her quest to wrest the seat from him.
At the same time, choosing to contest against the CPI candidate in Wayanad would send out the message that the informal agreement between the Left and the Congress to work together to uproot the BJP from power at the Centre is devoid of meaning and substance.
The typical narrative against Narendra Modi which has been buoyed by the purported unity of ‘Left, democratic, liberal and secular forces’ has indeed been punctured by Rahul’s decision to fight the Left in Wayanad. Whether this amounts to a self-goal or not only time will tell. True, the Left would continue to look upon the BJP as a greater enemy than the Congress and would not be averse to joining hands with the latter at the Centre to deny power to the BJP after the elections if the eventuality arises.
But cheated as the Left feels by Rahul’s gambit of contesting in Wayanad against CPI candidate P P Suneer, it is quite on the cards that in the unlikely event of the Opposition coming anywhere near the majority mark, the Left could put spokes in Rahul’s quest to be prime minister. The Left’s pique at Rahul’s candidature from Wayanad was articulated by CPM general secretary Parkash Karat who obliquely cast doubts over Congress-Left ties in the light of Rahul Gandhi’s decision to fight the Left in Wayanad.
In the internal politics of the Left, while Sitaram Yechury is inclined towards the Congress, Karat has been for a hard line towards it. Rahul’s move will give a boost to Karat at the cost of Yechury. Karat made his antipathy towards the Congress clear when he said his party would ‘work to ensure the defeat of Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad’. Said Karat, “The decision of Congress to field Rahul Gandhi from Wayanad shows their priority now is to fight against the Left in Kerala.
It goes against Congress’ national commitment to fight BJP.” The stand of Yechury who holds the reins of the party is, however, yet to unravel fully. Wayanad, which would vote on April 23, has been a Congress stronghold for decades and was therefore considered a ‘safe’ seat by Congress strategists. Formed after the delimitation exercise of 2008, it has been vacant since last year following the death of its lawmaker, Shanavas.
With roughly 50 per cent Hindus, 28.65 per cent Muslims and over 21 per cent Christians, Rahul’s candidature is seen as Congress’ way of pandering to the minorities. But it is precisely this aspect that could potentially damage the Congress across the country, giving the BJP a handle to accuse it of appeasing the minorities at the cost of the Hindus. The BJP too has a presence in the constituency having secured over 80,000 votes in 2014 in a total electorate of eight lakhs.
This time, it allotted the seat to its ally Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a backward Hindu caste outfit, and now has a heightened interest in its ally’s victory. In a state where the pendulum swings in every election, the Congress is tipped to win the bulk of the 20 Kerala parliamentary seats, leaving only a handful for the Left. If, as a result of Rahul’s contest, the minorities gravitate towards the Congress statewide, it would pose a problem for the Left.
The Congress is hopeful that Rahul contesting a seat in the South would work to the Congress’ advantage in all of South but this is too simplistic an expectation considering that in Tamil Nadu and Andhra, the party is almost non-existent on its own strength. In Tamil Nadu of course it has the DMK to bank upon. In Karnataka, the party has a base and it would be interesting to see how it fares vis-a-vis the BJP.
Crucially, it is Amethi which the Congress should be more worried about. A defeat there would yield a huge psychological boost to the BJP and rob the Congress and the Gandhis of what has been regarded as a virtual pocket borough. Smriti Irani is indeed an inveterate fighter who enjoys a close rapport with Prime Minister Modi. She has been assiduously cultivating the constituency despite having been defeated twice, having been mauled by three lakh votes in 2009 and by a reduced margin of a lakh of votes in 2014.
Wayanad may well catapult Rahul to the Lok Sabha but Amethi carries with it huge stakes for the Nehru-Gandhi family and its future in Indian electoral politics. Considering that Rahul has not nursed the constituency well, Smriti could well be a giant-killer.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a political commentator and columnist. He has authored four books.
