Let’s get one thing out of the way: The US midterm election result on Wednesday is not so much a pro-Democratic Party vote as it is unequivocally against US President Donald Trump. To be sure, the Democratic Party did not project anything significantly different or radical in terms of policy proposals. In fact, most of its candidates in key battleground states rode the anti-incumbency wave and won.
Trump’s message to every state he canvassed in was, “Vote like I am on the ballot.” This was political hubris, and voters don’t like arrogance. This was a massive referendum on Trump, not so much a reflection of individual candidates.
The Republican Party has surrendered control of the House of Representatives and lost crucial Senate seats, giving the Democrats a clear majority in both houses. But if the world thinks this is going to result in a more mellow and modest Trump, we’re deluding ourselves. If anything, Trump is likely to harden his stance.
Historical precedent and his rhetoric suggest he will lurch towards aggressive authoritarianism.
It is not just the defeat that is stinging him; it is the nature of it. In Ohio's gubernatorial race, the liberal Amy Acton defeated Trump-endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy, decisively rejecting the cruel, personal attack ads Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly celebrated. In neighbouring Michigan, progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed made history as the first Muslim US senator, overcoming Trump’s targeted Islamophobic messages to defeat the President’s hand-picked candidate, Mike Rogers. Sherrod Brown reclaimed his Ohio Senate seat.
These results will infuriate a president who views political opposition through the lens of personal grievance, toxic masculinity, and unconcealed xenophobia.
Trump's Likely Domestic Response
What does this mean for US legislative bodies? Trump will double down on executive overreach, attempting to bypass a hostile Congress by governing through sweeping executive decrees, weaponising his administration, and demanding absolute loyalty from the federal bureaucracy. Not to mention, he does have the presidential right to veto bills passed by the US Congress. For weeks now, he and his extreme right-wing advisers have been planning a process whereby the White House can completely bypass Congress.
In all democracies, checks and balances are in-built so that no one institution can assume absolute control over the rest. Trump is most likely going to challenge these very guardrails of American democracy.
Global Implications Of US Political Volatility
This domestic volatility will likely trigger global shockwaves. In any case, Trump’s erratic, transactional behaviour has made Washington an unpredictable wild card. The ill-advised and poorly executed war on Iran has resulted in high domestic prices not only in the US (and was the primary reason for his defeat) but has also made soaring inflation a reality in several countries around the world, including India.
Trump will escalate geopolitical frictions, and in all likelihood sever or challenge already-strained alliances with key partners such as NATO, Quad, and the like. This may sound inconsequential in the larger picture, but it isn’t. Alienating historical allies results in destabilising global security and economic markets. The fate of international climate pacts, trade networks, and critical security alliances cannot be subject to the whims of a leader focused entirely on political survival and personal greed.
West Asia And Strategic Chokepoints
Nowhere will this chaotic foreign policy equation be felt more acutely than in West Asia. Trump is a political bully. The election results have punctured the "strongman" narrative, and this will likely accelerate his highly impulsive posture towards Iran. He could resume attacks before even the end of the week, just to show the world who’s the boss. This will serve only to massage his ego while the rest of the world suffers.
He will, quite literally, engineer a crisis with his policy actions, directly endangering global trade routes like the already-affected Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb (The Gate of Tears). Both are vital global maritime chokepoints. The latter has not been discussed much, but it connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It serves as the southern gateway to Egypt’s Suez Canal, forming an indispensable shortcut for shipping between Asia, Europe, and North Africa. The passage handles roughly 10 per cent and 12 per cent of global seaborne petroleum and a substantial portion of international container traffic.
At the same time, he has threatened to cut off critical military aid to Israel, given that incumbent Prime Minister and Trump ally Benjamin Netanyahu may be ousted soon. This weaponisation of foreign aid would upend decades of bipartisan consensus, injecting massive instability into an already combustible region.
Impact On India-US Relations And Trade
It could impact the soon-to-be-concluded and heavily anticipated India-US trade deal. Trump will want to appease an angry domestic base through economic protectionism, and Washington will likely harden its stance on tariffs, intellectual property, and market access. This threatens the very basis of negotiations with New Delhi. Instead of building a global economic counterweight, the Trump-influenced trade pact faces the threat of being picked apart by arbitrary executive actions.
This will hurt India in other ways. New Delhi anyway faces the threat of secondary US sanctions aimed at imports of Russian crude oil—the backbone of India’s domestic energy security. An ego-battered Trump could force global banks and shipping conglomerates to comply with rigid compliance barriers to prevent India from accessing cheap oil.
India will thus incur a massive cost for Trump's defeat in the midterms.
India Needs A Dual-Track Strategy
Evidently, therefore, New Delhi can no longer rely purely on personal, leader-to-leader chemistry with the Trump White House. Indian diplomats will need to pivot towards the newly empowered, Democrat-controlled Congress. While Trump will attempt to bypass Capitol Hill via unilateral trade executive orders and visa restrictions, like the H-1B fee hikes, the new congressional calculus gives India a vital platform for counter-lobbying.
As prescribed in this space earlier, New Delhi must build deep, institutional coalitions with US lawmakers and business groups that are eager to use their newfound oversight powers. Dealing with the Trump White House requires a dual-track strategy—appeasing the transaction-driven impulses of a defensive president while leveraging the legislative blockades of Congress to shield India's tech sector, defence supply chains, and sovereign energy ties with Russia.
Senior journalist and editor, former US correspondent, and analyst Sachin Kalbag teaches foreign policy in Mumbai. He can be reached at sachinkalbag@gmail.com.
To get details on exclusive and budget-friendly property deals in Mumbai & surrounding regions, do visit: https://budgetproperties.in/
