Rajya Sabha polls are once again back in focus. With the election slated for June 19, the polls will see a fierce battle for supremacy between the BJP and Congress. Elections will be held for 24 Rajya Sabha (RS) vacancies: four each in Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, three each in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, two in Jharkhand, and one each in Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur and Meghalaya. Considering what is at stake, the BJP is going an extra mile to ensure victory for its candidates, while the Congress is worried, given that it has been hit hard by desertions of its legislators in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
The RS elections are usually a planned affair that rarely goes off the script, except for when they actually do. Like it happened three years ago when Ahmed Patel of Congress narrowly beat the BJP candidate in Gujarat after a lot of intrigue, cross-voting and disqualification of MLAs. Rarely was a single RS seat so fiercely contested, which demonstrated much about Indian politics: the fragility of power, the expansionist ambition of the BJP and the decay of the Opposition. If in the old days, RS elections were a dull and predictable affair with minimal element of surprise, in the last few years they have become fiercely fought contests for control of the Upper House.
The way Narendra Modi and Amit Shah do politics, every election matters. The BJP’s sole focus has been to acquire power, expand its strength and win everything from ‘parliament to panchayat’, as Shah once said. This explains why the Rajya Sabha elections have become so crucial for the BJP: maximising its numbers in the Upper House is important for the party to push its ideological agenda without resistance. Having won two consecutive majorities in the Lok Sabha, the BJP still lacks majority in the RS. Though along with its allies, it has managed an upward climb, the BJP-led NDA is still some distance away from the half-way mark. This is because the party lost a few state elections in recent past which slowed down its march towards achieving majority in the 245-member house.
Currently, the BJP is the single largest party in the RS with 75 seats. Along with its allies, the nominated and independent members the NDA tally adds up to 102. The Congress has 39 members and its friendly parties, which includes the Left parties, Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, NCP, JD(S), IUML and the Kerala Congress, have 34 members. Some of these parties have changed sides, depending on issues and bills, which makes their numbers fluid. The third group of parties – Biju Janata Dal, BSP, TDP and TRS – are largely BJP-friendly parties. The lack of majority in the RS has been a hindrance for the BJP since its first term to move with its legislative agenda. Though it has managed to pass many contentious laws – either through the dubious route by labelling bills as money bills that need approval of only the Lok Sabha or by managing support of fence-sitting ‘friendly’ parties – the BJP seems determined to win a majority for itself and its allies.
In the last few years, BJP has been employing every possible trick to increase its strength in RS. This includes chiselling away at the Opposition ranks – the TDP has lost four of its six RS members, the Samajwadi Party two and the Congress one over the last year – and alleged indulgence in horse-trading of MLAs. In recent years, the Congress has been a victim of defections. Rebellion of Congress MLAs leaving the party as soon as RS elections are announced has been a frequent occurrence in Gujarat since 2017 when 13 MLAs had resigned, threatening Ahmed Patel’s chances of getting re-elected. Patel had almost lost but won in a nail-biting finish. Cut to 2020. The election for four seats to the RS was scheduled for March 26, but was postponed because of coronavirus pandemic. Five Congress MLA from Gujarat had resigned in March itself, soon after the announcement of the elections.
Now once again, soon after the Election Commission rescheduled the polls for June 19, in a spate of continuous desertions eight Congress MLAs have resigned from their post. This has brought down the Congress’ strength to 65 in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while the BJP’s has gone up to 103. With each candidate needing 37 first preferential votes to register victory, the Congress was in a position to win two seats in all probability. However, in the emerging scenario, it is likely to win just one seat, while the remaining three are likely to be grabbed by the BJP. Apart from Gujarat, in recent years the Congress has suffered defections in other states as well. Last year in Karnataka, the ruling Congress-JD(S) coalition lost power due to defections of 16 MLAs: 13 of the Congress and three of the JD(S). The resignations of 16 MLAs gave BJP a clear edge to form government under B S Yediyurappa in July last year.
Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, 22 Congress MLAs resigned and joined the BJP, resulting in the toppling of Kamal Nath government in March this year. Resignations of Congress MLAs in different states has not only been an embarrassment for the grand old party, they have also dented its chances of winning the number of RS seats that it could have won. While in Karnataka four candidates for the RS – one each from Congress and JD(S) and two of the BJP – have been declared unopposed last Friday, in Madhya Pradesh where 52 MLAs are needed for a RS seat, the Congress with 92 MLAs may end up winning only one seat, instead of two it could have won. The BJP, on the other hand, may win two seats, instead of just one. In Rajasthan, where three seats are up for grab and 51 votes are needed to win a RS seat, the Congress has 107 MLAs, while the BJP has 72. The Congress will win two seats easily and the BJP one. However, like in Gujarat, BJP has fielded an extra candidate in both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, thus heightening the Congress’ anxieties.
Even in the midst of coronavirus pandemic, political rivalry has not taken a back seat. While the number of cases are increasing in greater numbers each day, the BJP seems to be on an overdrive to maximise its numbers in the RS, while the Congress is just not able to bring its house in order.
The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist.