The Election Commission decision to allot the cycle symbol to the Akhilesh faction of the Samajwadi Party consequent upon its verdict that the group led by Akhilesh is the real Samajwadi party has overnight strengthened its position vis-a-vis the Mulayam Singh Yadav group. It has paved the way for an alliance between SP and the Congress under Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership and heightened the prospect of a ‘mahagathbandhan’ of the type that was forged in the Bihar elections that succeeded in mauling the BJP.
With Ajit Singh’s RLD all set to join the grand alliance and Bihar’s Lalu Prasad Yadav announcing that he would address election meetings in favour of the SP-Congress combine, the fortunes of Akhilesh have seemingly taken a virtual leap for the upcoming Assembly elections. So high is Akhilesh riding as of now that the Congress is willing to accept whatever SP offers to it in terms of number of seats in the 403-member House.
The BJP, which had been steadily gaining ground in the wake of the battle between the Mulayam group and the Akhilesh faction, is benumbed by the sudden turn of events. It cannot but be rueing the fact that it has not built up a clear and strong leadership in the country’s most populous and electorally-crucial state. Not only has it not announced who will be the chief minister if the BJP comes to power but it really has no mass leader on whose broad shoulders the mantle of leadership can fall if it gets a majority.
The only leader of note for the party is Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh who has served as chief minister of UP in the past in 2000 and was a Cabinet minister in the Vajpayee government at the Centre and for two terms president of the BJP. Rajnath would be reluctant to shift to UP since he is the unanointed number 2 in the Narendra Modi cabinet but he can be persuaded particularly if the RSS comes into the picture.
Though Mayawati would be loathe to acknowledging it, she would be worried that the Muslims, who constitute an important vote bank in the State, accounting for 19 per cent of UP’s population, may drift away from her and go for the SP-Congress combine en masse. It is common knowledge that Muslims vote on tactical lines and their main motivation is to keep the BJP away from power. If they surmise that Akhilesh would emerge a winner if they vote for him, they may well ditch Mayawati as they did substantially in 2012 and strike a bargain with SP. It is all in the realm of speculation because Mayawati has been systematically wooing the Muslims before the Election Commission’s SP verdict turned the tables on her. All in all, an interesting battle lies ahead. Good strategising would be the key for all key parties in the run-up to the polls.
