A joint platform of Opposition parties to fight the dominant BJP in the 2024 elections has been a chimera so far but the second half of the recently-concluded Budget session showed some signs of a resurgence, with former Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s Lok Sabha disqualification emerging as the rallying point, albeit temporarily. However, the coalition of 14 parties approaching the Supreme Court over the misuse of central enforcement agencies was another uniting agenda for the like-minded Opposition parties, though it suffered a setback when the apex court told the parties to come back with specific instances rather than asking the court to lay down general guidelines.
So has Opposition unity become an idea that has faded into the distance? Well, it would be wrong to say so because efforts in multiple directions seem to be underway; what is lacking is a crystallised coherence and a roadmap of a common minimum programme which might be an early card to lay on the table.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin recently convened a conference of Opposition parties on social justice urging them to work towards an India free of discrimination, exclusion, untouchability and injustice. The very same parties have floated the idea of a caste-based census with RJD Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Jha giving a clarion call to boycott the Census till there is no caste census. This idea of social justice mooted by the Opposition is to expose the BJP on its OBC outreach. The BJP on the other hand has started a “Gaon gaon chalo, Ghar ghar chalo” campaign against Rahul’s remark about the OBCs.
The Opposition is insisting on the caste census to put the BJP on the mat because then it will have to roll out policies according to the findings of the caste census. The BJP so far has taken recourse under the 10% quota in the Economically Weaker Sections group. The BJP indeed seems to be worried that if the Opposition unites on social justice and succeeds in raising the social consciousness of the OBCs, Dalits, STs, and SCs, it could be easily pushed aside with a big hole punctured into the OBC outreach programme. How the Opposition will reach out to the masses with the message of “samajik nyay” or social justice remains to be seen. Whether it can effectively counter the BJP’s politics of polarisation is also something that needs to be scanned with a fine tooth-comb.
The Hindenburg Report has been another factor which has welded the Opposition ranks together to a large extent, bringing disparate forces like Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party closer to the grand old party. The second half of the budget session was a washout on this issue alone, but NCP chief Sharad Pawar dropped a bombshell on Opposition unity with his opinion that a JPC is not required. Pawar’s interview has helped PM Modi at a time when he is cornered on the Adani issue.
Pawar has taken the wind out of the Opposition’s sails and left different constituents feeling high and dry with a trust deficit as to which way Pawar will veer. There are rumours doing the rounds already that Pawar is striking a deal with the Shiv Sena and the BJP as Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde cannot win the state for the saffron party. If that turns out to be true, the Maratha strongman will certainly break the Opposition ranks and secure the future of his party, the NCP.
The countdown to the general elections has begun, with exactly 11 months for the country to hit the 18th Lok Sabha election. In the next few months, can the Opposition come together on a common plank, will regional leaders be able to shed their elephantine egos, and can their narrative offer a credible counter to the BJP? There is a major slip between the cup and the lip. The Opposition is whipping up momentum through some issue here and there; for instance the Aam Aadmi Party’s “illiterate Modi” campaign brings to the fore the alleged fake degree issue which leaves a lot of scope for a personal campaign against Narendra Modi, where his image could be dented — but the BJP is not far behind. It is also trying to create certain X factors in every state to neutralise that momentum.
Will that X factor be Pawar in Maharashtra, Prashant Kishore in Bihar, DK Shivkumar in Karnataka, or Ghulam Nabi Azad in Jammu and Kashmir? Hold your horses till then.
Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and consulting editor with Satya Hindi
