The on-going war in Syria acquired a further dangerous dimension when, on Wednesday, Russia began air strikes ostensibly against the Islamic State. The unilateral action by the beleaguered Russian President Vladimir Putin could potentially escalate the five-year-long conflict far beyond the Syrian borders. For Putin, whose country is hurting badly in diverse ways due to the Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea, entering the West Asian conflict on behalf of his ally, the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, could well be a way of thumbing his nose at the US. The fact that Russia did not coordinate with the US-led forces operating in Syria before undertaking the air strikes lent further support to the malign intentions of Putin. Also, reports from Syria that instead of targeting the IS, the Russian planes targeted civilian areas controlled by the anti-Assad rebels fuelled suspicions about their real objective. The Russian aircraft reportedly carried out about 20 missions. Anti-Assad rebels claimed these resulted in the killing of 36 civilians in areas held by them. NATO forces warned of likely dangers from uncoordinated Russian strikes. In fact, western media reports claimed that the Russians had pointedly targeted anti-Assad rebels which had been trained by the CIA. Quite clearly, an isolated and cornered Putin, increasingly worried by a tottering economy following the Western sanctions and a precipitate fall in the prices of oil and natural gas, had decided to enter the Syrian conflict in order to attract global attention and try and reach an amicable solution to the standoff with the West over Ukraine. The western sanctions were clamped on Russia in March last year following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian-backed Ukrainian rebels. Crimea was soon formally merged with the Russian Federation. However, Putin has been openly supporting Assad in his fight against the rebels backed by a coalition of Islamic nations, led by Saudi Arabia and supported by NATO. A few weeks ago, NATO planes began air strikes against the IS ground forces. The IS is engaged in a two-pronged battle aimed at removing Assad from power while, simultaneously, staving off the challenge from the western-backed anti-Assad rebels. Despite the western air strikes, the IS seems to be holding on to its ground advantage, having controlled a sizable portion of the Syrian territory from the pro-Assad forces. Syria’s troubled neighbour, Turkey, which has had to accommodate lakhs of Syrian refugees following the armed conflict, too has belatedly undertaken air strikes against Assad. But all this has not failed to dislodge Assad from a good part of the territory still under the control of troops loyal to him; nor has it mitigated the danger from the barbaric IS which still controls large tracts of Syrian and Iraqi territory. With Russia entering in this simmering cauldron it is anyone’s guess as to how the raging conflict will end. But there can be no denying that the Russian entry has given the western powers another cause for worry. They cannot settle for the continuance of Assad, for that would be a blow to their prestige, while, at the same time, they do not seem to be able to enlist the whole-hearted support of Russia in neutralising the IS. Even if both might be agreed on extinguishing the challenge of IS, Russia and Iran would like to hand over a peaceful Syria to Assad.
On the other hand, the Saudis and the American-led western powers would like to have someone else in place of Assad ruling Syria after the decimation of IS. How do you solve this jigsaw puzzle defies imagination. Meanwhile, the armed conflict has created a huge humanitarian crisis. While over two lakh Syrians have died in the last five years, millions have been uprooted from their homes. The bloody civil war with foreign militias entering the fray on either side has also caused a huge headache for most countries in the region. Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc., have had to put up tens of thousands of refugees from the Syrian conflict. In recent weeks, European nations have faced a huge moral and political challenge as tens of thousands of refugees from Syria and Iraq have braved drowning, bad weather and border police excesses to forcibly enter their borders. In short, a negotiated end to the Syrian conflict does not brook any further delay. With Russia upping the ante not so much for the IS as for the US, a modus vivendi has to be found to stabilise conditions in Syria. The cold vibes between Putin and President Obama at the recent multilateral summit in New York, however, did not give any cause for optimism. Things in Syria might get worse before they get any better, because the West will be tempted to call Putin’s bluff and thus risk escalation beyond the Syrian borders.
