For the next few weeks, or at least till the time India-Pakistan ties hit the next big road bump, a disproportionate amount of time and energy is likely to be expended on a trivial question: was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brief stopover in Lahore on Christmas Day entirely impulsive or was it preceded by meticulous preparations?
The answer, predictably, will vary according to the respondent’s pre-existing attitude to the Prime Minister. Those favourably disposed towards the leader will, no doubt, highlight the spontaneous aspect since it highlights Modi’s ability to seize every half-chance. In any case, the ‘drop-in’ diplomacy visible in Lahore on Friday afternoon bears the same signature as the invitation to all SAARC leaders for the May 2014 swearing-in ceremony. Modi’s diplomatic style is a tad unconventional since it is premised on the belief that a favourable personal chemistry between leaders gives diplomacy a much-needed extra push. Hence, it is entirely possible that he seized on Nawaz Sharif’s Punjabi joviality to actually do what no Indian leader would dare do: make an unscheduled stop in Pakistan. Regardless of whether or not this pays tangible diplomatic returns, Modi has now insulated himself from the charge — often heard in the ecosystem of the Western embassies — that he is not serious about engaging Pakistan. Even if dialogue fails to produce a diplomatic thaw, Modi can at least turn around and say that he tried his very best.
More than anything else, Modi’s Lahore trip once again confirmed something that is becoming increasingly obvious to the discerning: that the media has by and large ceased to be a disseminator of credible information of what is happening in the government.
Not that this will convince his detractors at home who reacted to the Lahore stopover with explosive fury that almost matched the apoplectic Pakistani reporter whose earlobes-pulling ‘tauba, tauba’ had the social media in splits. The Congress is making a very special effort to tell India that its opposition to Modi is not merely political but based on visceral, personal antipathy—of the type Ram Jethmalani has for Arun Jaitley. Therefore, for the former ruling party, it was important to debunk the ‘Happy Birthday to Nawaz’ stopover as not merely a stunt but a move that sacrifices every national interest known to the Gandhi family. Whether Anand Sharma’s sneering sound bites or Manish Tewari’s verbose tweets, the Congress vacillated between denouncing the visit as either mindless impulsiveness or a carefully crafted bid to promote some mythical corporate interests. The Congress response was determined by blind anger and hence lacked intellectual coherence.
At best, the Congress reminded people that Modi’s Pakistan policy has been marked by violent swings and that the present bonhomie takes its cue from Manmohan Singh’s dream of breakfasting in Delhi, lunching at Islamabad and savouring dinner in Kabul — or was it the other way round? But if Dr Singh is the architect of the ‘drop in’ dream for South Asia, why rubbish it just because the occupant of Race Course Road has changed? The mean-mindedness of India’s politics, it would seem, remains an unbroken thread.
There may have been a distant past when a less partisan perspective may have come from the media. That, alas, was a long time ago when a surprising turn was reported with a sense of (attempted) clinical detachment. The Christmas surprise was no doubt resented because it ruined what would otherwise have been a convivial holiday. But more important, the media also reacted with a measure of anger because the Modi move was least expected.
Regardless of post-facto attempts to suggest that tell tale signs of the Lahore visit were available but remained undetected because Arvind Kejriwal had diverted attention to DDCA’s accounting standards, the fact is that the media hated being caught unawares. More than anything else, Modi’s Lahore trip once again confirmed something that is becoming increasingly obvious to the discerning: that the media has by and large ceased to be a disseminator of credible information of what is happening in the government. Whether this stems from design or is a consequence of what Americans call ‘attitude’ is worth a reflection. But overall, the Lahore visit drove home the cluelessness of the media with a vengeance. This in turn raises serious questions about the reliability of its earlier commentaries on foreign policy since the assessments were built on foundations of ignorance.
Finally, the Christmas detour of Modi was akin to a death sentence passed on the vibrant Track-2 and conflict-resolution industries in both countries, but particularly in India. Once upon a time these initiatives may have served a purpose but in recent years, these well-funded bodies that allow agonised souls to visit the world and pretend to be useful, have become derailed. In India, many of these bodies run as the public diplomacy arm of either the Pakistani High Commission or influence hubs for both the US and some European Union members with cash to burn up.
In the present exchanges between New Delhi and Islamabad, the Modi government has been very careful to limit information to a strict ‘need-to-know-basis’. This has not only prevented diplomatic moves being scuttled through premature publicity but it has exposed the complete redundancy of the non-government channels. Maybe these will be resurrected in new forms subsequently but experience appears to have shown that retired diplomats have too many of their own agendas to play the role of honest brokers. But their irrelevance involves a cost, in India at least. At the risk of overstating the point I would suggest that a great deal of opposition to Modi’s nimble-footed diplomacy is likely to come from retired members of the Indian Foreign Service. They cannot appreciate the slew of energetic improvisations in foreign policy.
For the moment the sceptics can’t reconcile to the fact that Modi has made a mark in the world and that this is rubbing off on India. For the past year, they have been trying to peddle a bigger narrative: that India is in the throes of cretinism, intolerance and crass stupidity. This manufactured pessimism won’t disappear just because Modi embraced Sharif in Lahore, but it will raise counter questions.
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