Clearly, the newly-crafted alliance between the SP-BSP in UP is jolted by the defeat of the BSP candidate in the recent Rajya Sabha poll. The BJP pulled off a surprise win from the jaws of a certain defeat, winning an extra ninth seat, while leaving the SP with a solitary seat which was bagged by Jaya Bachchan. Because the leaders of the two opposition parties were still smarting under the shock defeat of Mayawati’s handpicked candidate, they have sought to reassure their respective constituencies that, come what may, the alliance was here to stay.
Additionally, because the BSP candidate was a Dalit, Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati were at pains to turn his defeat into a Dalit versus high-caste contest, the accusation being that by defeating him, the BJP had exposed its anti-Dalit character. Of course, such specious arguments convince no-one, but there is nothing to prevent politicians to try and hoodwink people by seeking to gloss over the real causes for their failure. In this case, the truth is that an MLA of the BSP had openly stated his intention long before the actual polling that he would vote against the party’s official candidate. Again, a controversial independent MLA, who is close to the SP leadership, had declared that he felt under no obligation to give his second preference vote to the BSP candidate, though he did vote for the SP’s Jaya Bachchan.
Therefore, instead of looking for reasons for the defeat of their joint candidate, blaming the BJP would serve no purpose. After the RS poll, on Sunday the two leaders reiterated their desire to further firm up the alliance with the 2019 general election in view. As they say, there is always a slip between the cup and the lip, with more than a year left for the Lok Sabha poll. Neither party can predict what events will overtake their carefully crafted plans, with Mayawati, always mercurial, always unpredictable, capable of changing her mind on a whim or a genuine predicament. The fact that she and her extended family have been under investigation by various agencies for over a decade for having amassed assets zillions of times in excess of their known sources of income, the sword of Damocles, as it were, has never stopped hanging over her head. Indeed, it was a surprise that she supported the SP candidates in the recent Lok Sabha by-polls from Gorakhpur and Phulpur, suggesting that the Centre is certainly not using the threat of the agencies to make her fall in line.
As for the loss of her candidate in the RS poll, whether or not she likes to believe it, once again it underlined the fact that the traditional SP voter remains hesitant to vote for the BSP nominees, whereas Mayawati’s voters are sufficiently loyal to transfer their votes to whomsoever she may choose to support in a given election. This reality reflects the actual position on the ground with the SP’s Yadavs traditionally suppressing Dalits in villages and small towns. Indeed, the upper caste Brahmins, considered the natural BJP voters now, having moved away from the Congress, are seen by Dalits as protectors. Therefore, how the newly-found SP-BSP bonhomie at the leadership level will hold at the ground level remains to be seen.
The two leaders might have been forced by the fear of marginalisation by the BJP if they were to hang separately. Hanging together, they are assured of an imprecise aggregation of votes, though the exact percentage is hard to tell since loyal voters of each party might entertain reservations about the alliance. On the other hand, the win of an extra candidate fielded by the BJP in the RS poll, does not in any way cancel out the loss of the two Lok Sabha by-polls in UP. The BJP’s own voter is dissatisfied with the performance of the State and central governments. Besides, the party took the by-polls lightly, virtually neglecting campaigning while for the SP-BSP combine it was a matter of survival after the near wash-out in the Assembly poll last year. Whether or not the SP-BSP hold together till the next parliamentary poll, the BJP governments have to perform, and need to be seen to be performing, for the party to be able to retain power for another five-year term after 2019.
