The spectre of a hung Lok Sabha looms large on the horizon as the country prepares for the next general elections falling due in six months. Opinion polls are rarely an accurate guide but they do indicate the general direction in which the trend is. By all counts, there is a mood of anti-incumbency against the Narendra Modi government which is expected to whittle down the tally of the BJP and consequently the NDA in the impending elections to five state assemblies and subsequently to the Lok Sabha.
How severe the anti-incumbency would be is, however, in the realm of speculation. A huge relief for the Modi dispensation is that while the UPA led by the Congress, and a loosely-knit front of regional parties, are united on wanting to see Modi out but the hankering for power is so acute that they are far from resolving the issue of leadership.
In the process, the khichdi sarkar inspires little confidence of durability. If the criterion for leadership is to be the leadership of the single largest opposition party, the mantle would logically fall on Rahul Gandhi but even if a Rahul-led government comes about, despite the conviction of many in the Opposition that he is not prime minister material, it would collapse like a pack of cards before long.
In the circumstances, the odds are in favour of Modi sailing into his second term at the head of a coalition. Seeing no viable alternative to Modi, the masses may be left with no choice. Rahul, in any case, is not a patch on Modi and managing a coalition may hardly be his cup of tea.
As things stand, there is a sense of drift. The ruling NDA is not winning new allies and the Opposition is still divided between the UPA and the regional grouping. When, a couple of months ago, Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) had a closed door meeting with Modi and emerged smiling from it at the Prime Minister’s residence, many conjectured that they had carved out a secret understanding.
However, KCR has found it expedient to forge links with Asaduddin Owaisi of the Majlis-e-Ittehad Muslimeen for the upcoming Assembly elections and has gone on record to say that he will never tie up with the BJP or the Congress come what may. Yet, he talks about moving his focus to the Centre after the Assembly polls, not spelling out what he will set out to achieve.
With the Telugu Desam of Chandrababu Naidu and the Congress, once bitter rivals and enemies, having tied up in Telangana and Andhra, KCR’s bitterness with Congress has grown. There is still a possibility that KCR may forge an understanding with the NDA after the Lok Sabha polls if the NDA falls short of numbers. The same can be said of Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra who is not bending over backwards to woo the BJP in the Assembly elections but could bargain for an understanding after the Lok Sabha polls if the NDA falls short.
While a good showing by the Congress in the ensuing polls to some assemblies would give a psychological boost to Rahul Gandhi, the Lok Sabha polls is a different kettle of fish where the NDA would attract greater traction because of the Modi-versus-Rahul factor in which Modi would have a distinct advantage.
Evidently, it is erroneous to call the Assembly polls in five states a semi-final before the general elections final. The outcome in the ‘final’ may well be hugely different with the advantage being with the BJP. This is, of course, not to deny that as compared to 2014 there would be a fall in NDA numbers.
There is no denying the advantage to the Congress of anti-incumbency against the BJP though this may get diluted to an extent in the Lok Sabha polls assuming that there is little possibility of unity being forged between the UPA and the regional grouping.
That the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party have drifted away from the Congress is a signal that forging a common front against Modi and building up consensus for Rahul Gandhi will be no mean task. A common understanding on any other Opposition leader is equally unlikely. The egos of Opposition leaders are too inflated to agree on a common candidate.
Significantly, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati are rather muted in their opposition to the BJP of late. Whether they are turning soft towards Modi is, however, premature to say but apparently, there is not much love lost between them and the Congress leadership.
That Bihar is secure for the BJP with the alliance with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) seems a fair assessment. In Orissa, too, the BJP is slated to make some gains at the cost of Naveen Patnaik’s BJD. But the BJP will lose seats in the northern belt and there is little chance of making up the losses through other states.
All in all, six months seems a long time in Indian politics. There could be new twists and turns that could influence the course of the Lok Sabha polls. For instance, the conviction of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi in the National Herald case could swing votes one way or another. There, indeed, are many other imponderables, too.
Kamlendra Kanwarr is a political commentator and columnist.
He has authored four books.
