REGIONALISM is a strong force and this has implications for national parties such as the BJP which wants a footprint all over the country. The results will also have to be seen in conjunction with what happens in Punjab, Manipur and Goa. Gujarat comes later in the year and that is a state Modi cannot afford to lose.
In a day from now, results of the most keenly fought state assembly elections in recent times will roll in and the implications will go far beyond the state. Uttar Pradesh has always been an important part of national politics – many a Prime Minister has originated there – and its sheer size and heft gives it tremendous weight. It is three or four states in one, which is why analysts and pundits looking at the elections and even journalists covering it are left scratching their heads about the outcome.
Each region votes in a particular way, but strangely, it has almost always turned in a majority for one party or the other. In 2014, the BJP, carried forward by the Modi wave, won a stupendous 73 seats which made a big difference to its final tally. By that token, it ought to win 330 plus seats, but most observers agree that this is too ambitious a target. But it cannot afford to lose, as that will have not just state-wide but also national implications.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, fully aware of that, stationed himself in Varanasi for a few days, which is unprecedented, since prime ministers do not get involved in provincial politics beyond a point. He took out roadshows (which his party first said was a roadshow then claimed it wasn’t), conducted aartis and pujas, which were covered live by television channels and held public meetings, all to convince the voters to choose his party. Narendra Modi is still the only real ‘face’ the party has and throws himself into electioneering with gusto.
This time though, he was up against not just one rival, a weakened Congress, but against two — a formidable Samajwadi-Congress combine and Mayawati, who, many people think, has been under-rated this entire election. She still retains her following and could turn out to be the dark horse. The youthfulness of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi is not to be dismissed either. If the BJP still wins or performs very creditably, coming out on top among the three even without a majority, it will be due to Modi.
A BJP win in a hung assembly will still give it tremendous clout, since it will be able to attract many others, helping it reach the magic majority number. If the party forms the government, the Modi-Shah team will get strengthened at the Centre, giving the Prime Minister confidence for the next two and a half years and up to 2019, which is when the next elections will be held.
Coming second will be a shock, but it depends on how poor its performance is. A close second still makes it a formidable opposition in the assembly and keeps a door open for political maneuvering in the coming years. But it will undoubtedly weaken Modi’s position and perhaps also have an impact on his plans for the elections to the post of the President later this year. It is imperative, from Modi’s point of view, to have a friendly President, given that the next general elections are not too far away. Who knows how it will all pan out?
What if the SP-Congress combination wins? This will be a huge booster to both parties—Akhilesh would have bucked the anti-incumbency trend and shown that he is no longer just a Yadav leader and that he is liked by a cross section of society. In a caste-led polity like UP, this is a major achievement. Already he is a favourite among youngsters who see him as a forward looking, modernising force. The bigger winner would be the Congress, which needs a success story after its string of failures over the years. If the party also does well in Punjab, it will boost not just the party but also Rahul Gandhi who can then take over the Congress immediately after.
The other, least expected but not ruled out possibility is a Mayawati win. She has been losing support among her core backers and also among those who had come towards her in the past. She has been out of power for years and has kept a relatively low profile. But her meetings have been drawing crowds and there are many in UP who remember that law and order was good during her reign. This is contrasted with the SP raj when it has deteriorated. The Dalits still see her as their leader. What if she comes in?
The BJP may try to win her over, but their relationship has been tumultuous in the past and she has categorically said she will not join hands with them. Mayawati’s victory could upset all calculations and depending on how poorly the BJP and the SP-Congress does, could show that at the state level, voters only trust a local party. Regionalism is a strong force and this has implications for national parties such as the BJP which wants a footprint all over the country. The results will also have to be seen in conjunction with what happens in Punjab, Manipur and Goa. Gujarat comes later in the year and that is a state Modi cannot afford to lose.
Half way through Modi’s rule, things are not looking as they did in 2014; he still retains his charisma and following, but the weaknesses are beginning to show. If despite all the problems, including demonetisation and lack of jobs, the BJP wins, it will be an amazing miracle indeed.
The author is a Founding Editor of The Wire. He is a
journalist and writer based in Mumbai
