IF a Shiv Sena, MNS tie up did happen, what would the Shiv Sena get out of it? Even if they did not merge – and more likely than not, they won’t – they could keep tight control over the Marathi manoos vote instead of cutting into each other. That could make sure that someone else, the BJP or the Congress, does not walk away with a win while these two fight and split the vote.
When the estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray met up the other day, “tongues began to wag,” as cliché writers like to say. The two have been personally and politically apart ever since the latter quit the Shiv Sena more than a decade ago.
Occasionally, whenever there has been a personal occasion, such as the death of Bal Thackeray and Uddhav’s illness, Raj Thackeray has visited the family home Matoshree. But this time he called upon Uddhav for no apparent reason, or at least none that is known to the public.
This has naturally set off wild speculation. Some say it is to do with family reasons — Raj may be called upon to mediate between Uddhav and his estranged brother Jaidev who are fighting a property dispute. Others claim it was to wish Uddhav on his birthday, in which case one would wonder why the visit took place two days after the event.
But most are looking for some political meaning into the meeting. Given that the crucial municipal elections are due in Mumbai early next year, that is but natural. Also, it is no secret that the Shiv Sena is at loggerheads with its ally in government, the BJP, and loses no opportunity to take a swipe at it, including occasionally hurling an insult towards Narendra Modi, something that is a no-no for the BJP. For both parties the battle for the richest corporation in India is an almost do-or-die one, and if the Sena happens to do badly or even lose, it will weaken it considerably.
At the same time, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, after good performances in the 2007 municipal elections and then the 2009 state elections, has flattered to deceive. And though it attracted Sena workers and mid-level leaders, some have drifted back. MNS wants to be more than just another player in state politics; it wants to be a king maker. It breathes hot and cold about the BJP, but the civic elections are a key test for its on-the-ground popularity. A tie up with the Shiv Sena would suit it quite well.
If such a tie up did happen, what would the Shiv Sena get out of it? Even if they did not merge – and more likely than not, they won’t – they could keep tight control over the Marathi manoos vote instead of cutting into each other. That could make sure that someone else, the BJP or the Congress, does not walk away with a win while these two fight and split the vote.
Should a tie up be declared, it is assumed that it will enthuse both parties and the cadre, but will it? There is no doubt that the Shiv Sena’s cadre was very upset when the initial break up happened and kept on hoping for a patch up. But much water has flown under the bridge since then. Uddhav Thackeray has held his flock together and shown that under him the Shiv Sena can post relatively good results. Shiv Sainiks see the MNS as an interloper and what is more, a new generation has grown up that does not have the same emotional memories of both cousins having been together. They won’t object to a poll tie up, but they don’t yearn for a new, unified party. The Sena is in power in Mantralaya, even if as a junior partner and is in control of Mumbai’s municipal corporation. What has the MNS got to show for itself, they would naturally ask.
How would others perceive a poll agreement between the Senas? Both the Congress, the NCP and the BJP would be wary. The former because it hopes to put up a good show in the coming elections and the Senas as one unit would be a formidable opponent; but it is the BJP, which is keen to capture Mumbai that should be worried the most. Because if the Thackerays were to join hands, in whatever way, they could put paid to the BJP’s chances of cutting into the Marathi vote. The BJP will go nowhere unless large chunks of the Marathi manoos backs it; if the Sena is together, even in a loose alliance, it would be a body blow to the BJP and even affect the state government’s stability.
Of course all this is in the realm of conjecture for the moment. There may not be any alliance in the air, now or even later. The meeting could be for family reasons, nothing else. Both may go their own political way. But even so, the fact that the two cousins, who have drifted apart and run their own organisations, met up, should give other political parties cause to worry. They will have to work out new poll calculations. Will blood turn out to be thicker than water? The next few months will provide the answer.
