Weakened by decades of international sanctions and an economy that is unravelling steadily, Iran is again in the throes of unrest, as thousands hit the streets protesting inflation, electricity blackouts and unemployment. The wave of anti-government protests in Tehran, Isfahan, and other cities has reportedly resulted in many deaths, reviving memories of the public backlash over the death of a 22-year-old woman in custody on the hijab issue three years ago. This time, the plunge in the Iranian rial’s value against key currencies—to 1.3 million rials to a US dollar—has made an already severe inflation crisis infinitely worse; citizens find it impossible to pay rents and buy essential goods. Moreover, the gloom over the deteriorating economy has grown darker with the use of cheap petroleum residue to produce electricity in place of cleaner natural gas, fouling up the air in the Iranian capital. For the revolutionary regime presided over by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the shock of intense public protest at all this is compounded by US President Donald Trump’s threat to use military action if there is any violence against those on the streets. Given the crushing bombing of Iranian targets last year, including its underground nuclear sites, by Israel and the US, a fresh aerial attack is a real and present danger. However, Iran’s rigid, conservative regime has little room to manoeuvre and ease financial pressures, as it struggles to maintain its hold on the citizens and work around economic sanctions.
In a country of 92 million people, with a perpetually sliding economy that is sanctioned from leveraging petroleum and other natural resources, hope now lies in a strategic peace achieved through mediators. One option is to work with Saudi Arabia in concluding an agreement with the Trump dispensation. The hardline stance of the Ayatollah and a likely strengthening of nationalism in the face of military campaigns need to be replaced by realpolitik that saves Iran from attacks and aligns its policies with the interests of friendly countries, such as China and Russia. France, Germany and the United Kingdom voted to snap back European sanctions last year after a decade because of non-compliance with a nuclear agreement. Russia and China—which buys discounted oil—continued to do business as long as it did not hurt their other partners but did not lend major support during the 12-day war with Israel last year. This was despite heavy damage to Iran’s Russian-made air defence system. Iran is also isolated by the fall of the friendly Assad regime in Syria. Domestically, the shadow of the past hangs heavily. Given the troubled history of the Pahlavi dynasty rule, the offer made by the pro-US former prince, Reza Pahlavi, to support protesters may not amount to much, and he is not the sheet anchor the citizens crave. A transition to democratic republicanism is what they need.
