Russian military intervention in Ukraine has entered its third week. Finding its ground offensive crawling due to stiff Ukrainian resistance, Russia is pulverizing cities, after allowing civilians to exit. The two major nations that sat on the fence at the United Nations, China and India, are evolving their responses.
China and Russia issued a joint statement on February 4 at Beijing, after the summit of Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It talked of a relationship with “no limits”. Debate has persisted since then whether China was fully in the loop on the Russian military offensive, just three weeks later.
Possibly, Chinese may not have realised its full range. For instance, it asked its citizens, including students, to stay on in Kiev. Many are now stuck in the war zone. China is also denying that Russia has sought military supplies from it. In Rome US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi met. Former opined afterwards that the US would not allow any nation to throw a “lifeline to Russia against these sanctions.”
After conversations with his French and German counterparts, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quoted as hoping that the tense situation would not escalate or break into wider conflagration. There are some in the west who are hoping to use China to knock sense into Putin. But so far the Chinese have been balancing between the emerging poles, unwilling to intervene diplomatically. Though their mounting discomfort with Russian actions is palpable.
Interestingly, China is allowing a public debate amongst its strategic analysts on Chinese options. Hu Wei, Vice Chair, Public Policy Research, Counselor’s office of State Council, warned about being “in the same boat with Putin”. What would be the impact on China, he asked, if Putin was to lose power. The Chinese economy is also much more globally integrated than that of Russia, making it unwilling to follow Russia into quicksand.
China would be weighing carefully two lessons emerging from the Ukraine imbroglio. One, that liberal democracies are more resilient than they appear and unite quickly if challenged. This is despite likely sacrifices in the short run. Two, both Taiwan and China would rework their military strategies after factoring in the slow progress of Russia’s superior war machine when facing a determined antagonist. US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo warned on March 9 that if Chinese companies decided to defy US sanctions on Russia they too would face secondary sanctions.
So far the US has been less threatening towards India as it needs it to contain China. India also is testing the ground by allowing Indian companies to buy 3 million barrels of discounted Russian crude. In the US Congress some loud critical voices have been heard but generally the US has withheld any direct threat. Their patience may not last, if the war continues taking a lethal toll on human life.
Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions, created by Covid epidemic, and exacerbated now by the Ukraine War, have badly hit the semiconductor chips. US’ Intel Corp. is investing $ 18.7 billion in former East German town of Magdeburg, besides ramping up production at their facilities in Arizona and Ohio. The Republic of Korea has announced an investment of $ 450 billion by 2030 for chip self-sufficiency. In 1980 the global market share in chips was 40% for the US and 20% for the European Union (EU). It is now down to 15%and 10%, respectively. The developed nations fear a worse scenario if China was to invade Taiwan, the citadel of cutting-edge chips. China could also capture the technology, which it currently lacks. There are suggestions that such facilities should have an auto-destruct mechanism if threatened.
India’s Ukraine problem began as a humanitarian one, having to rescue over 20,000 students. India too erred by starting late like the Chinese, thinking Putin would not launch full scale war. Quick action to arrange internal transport and air ferries to India then followed. It coincided with elections, especially the last phase in Uttar Pradesh, politicising the issue.
What happens next? There was talk of Russia-Ukraine parleys making some headway. Analysts surmise that Putin’s initial strategy to obtain quick surrender and government replacement has failed. His own troop losses are high. As time passes, battlefield losses aside, sanctions will start biting the Russian economy and hitting the Russian people. It may still not be too late for an orderly exit?
India must also weigh the reputational long-term cost of being, as Hu Wei put it, in boat with Putin. The US may indulge India for a while, but eventually the pressure will increase. Indian government’s argument that even some EU nations are buying Russian oil and gas is weak. If supplies open up from Iran and Venezuela the justification for buying discounted oil will disappear.
But India still requires Russian weapons systems, spares and fertilisers. Half of India’s potash comes from Russia and Belarus. Thus, India is restarting the old Rouble-Rupee trade, bypassing dollar-based mechanisms. The Ukraine war is unlikely to end quickly. And even if it does, the WTO-based global trading system stands affected. As is the 5-power based nuclear deterrent system. The world is fast becoming a more dangerous place.
(The writer is an independent journalist, author, publisher, documentary filmmaker, and teacher with 44 years of work experience. He can be contacted at paranjoy@gmail.com)
