The dissenting voices in the BJP, suppressed under partypresident Amit Shah and the party’s successive poll victories have started tocome out in the open. Reverberations from the loss of governments in threeHindi heartland states and the drubbing BJP received in other two are clearlyvisible in the comments made by Union minister Nitin Gadkari recently atconferences that had nothing to do with politics, which have been interpretedas a message for BJP’s leadership. The aftershocks of the electoral losses canalso be seen in the significant concessions made by the BJP to its allies inBihar in seat sharing for the 2019 general elections.
While the BJP’s smaller allies have become restive anddiscontent within the NDA has become louder, Gadkari’s repeated tongue-in-cheekremarks have raised quite a few eyebrows. His later clarifications that he was quoted out of context have onlyadded fuel to the fire generated by his comments. Gadkari’s remarks – ‘successhas many fathers and failure is an orphan’ and ‘leadership should own upresponsibility’ – may be directed towards party president Amit Shah, but thereal target could be prime minister Narendra Modi, who happens to wield realpower in the government and the BJP, while Shah draws his strength from Modi.
Gadkari is not a motor-mouth. As former president of theBJP, he headed the party when it did not have a strong leader. Known to beclose to the RSS which chose him to set the BJP in order, he took the rein ofthe party at a difficult time in January 2010. That was the time when the BJPhad some sort of internal party democracy. But things changed after the BJP found a leader in Modi before the 2014Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s emphatic victory saw Modi emerging as an undisputedleader. Shah’s elevation as BJP’s national president was seen as Modi’s choice.Modi’s presidential style of leadership, with Shah as his trusted deputy,worked perfectly till the going was very strong for the BJP in state elections.
Six states – Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur – went to polls in the first half of 2017. TheBJP formed governments in five of the six states. These back-to-back victoriesmade it look like the Modi factor that propelled the BJP to power in 2014 wasinvincible. As BJP’s electoral triumphs worked like a perfect joyride fornearly two-and-half years, there was neither any room for rumblings in theparty, nor discontent in the NDA. As power suppressed dissent and voices ofsanity were drowned in the hubbub of majoritarian politics, it looked as if theBJP was unbeatable till it got a jolt in Gujarat in December 2017. The Gujaratoutcome gave hope to the opposition that Modi and the BJP can be defeated.
The year 2018 changed the perception further. The Gorakhpurand Phulpur by-election losses, the failed attempt to form government inKarnataka, the Kashmir conundrum and the failed behind-the-scene efforts toform a coalition government with Sajad Lone as the face of the newdispensation, the Rafale controversy and the loss of power in three heartlandstates dented BJP’s invincibility. With2018 turning out to be a bad year for the BJP electorally, the resurgent Congress,hopeful opposition and the possibility of a mahagathbandhan taking shape havesent the BJP on the back foot. This has not only emboldened the BJP’s allies tobargain hard, but rumblings have begun within the BJP itself. Gadkari’scomments are indication of the simmering discontent.
Despite Gadkari’s clarification that his remarks had nopolitical connotations, it is difficult to ignore the timing of what he saidand why. ‘One who thinks he knows it all is mistaken. There is a differencebetween confidence and ego. You should be confident but keep ego away,’ Gadkarisaid. He also commented on the need for being humble in politics and emphasisedthat one should refrain from ‘artificial marketing’. While praising Nehru,Gadkari added that ‘tolerance is our biggest asset and unity in diversity isour real strength’. Since Nehru is an anathema for BJP leaders, including Modiand Shah, Gadkari’s admiration for Nehru is not only a telltale critic ofModi’s frequent attempts to run him down, but Gadkari’s reference to toleranceas India’s biggest asset is a rejection of overt majoritarian political linethe BJP has followed since 2014.
Whether this is an attempt to hold mirror to Modi and Shahis difficult to say, but Gadkari may have indirectly tried pointing out to theparty leadership that self-belief is fine but when it starts looking likearrogance and when leadership remains insulated from ground realities, it couldsignal the beginning of the fall. When Gadkari said that ‘winning elections isimportant, but if socio-economic transformation does not take place, progressof a country won’t happen’, he was obviously referring to all round rural and urban economic distressand people’s disenchantment with the government, despite impressive electoralperformance since 2014. Gadkari seems to have deliberately chosen to speak inbroad generalities but his comments indicate that internal jostling in the BJPfor 2019 has begun and he may be testing the waters in the hope of emerging asthe rallying point for dissidents in the party.
The sudden buzz around Gadkari is not coincidental. It isthe result of certain key questions the BJP is confronted with in the run up tothe general elections. With the TDP and some of the smaller allies havingalready left the NDA and its oldest ally, Shiv Sena, making all kinds ofembarrassing comments about the prime minister, his government and his party,yielding to the allies’ demand in Bihar is a signal that the BJP may have givenup the hope of winning an absolute majority on its own in 2019. Since nobodyseems to believe that it can repeat its 2014 performance in the Hindi speakingstates where its core strength lies, the BJP may be banking on the hope ofemerging as the single largest party with 200-plus seats.
There are murmurs that in case the BJP fails to get around240 seats, the NDA partners might insist on someone other than Modi’s as theparty’s prime ministerial candidate. Could Gadkari be the RSS’s man in reserveto replace Modi? That remains to be seen.
A L I Chougule is an independent senior journalist.
