In the vibrant political theatre of the desert state of Rajasthan, the stage is set for a battle royale – a showdown of the titans.
With the BJP showcasing its might through ‘Parivartan Yatras’ but refraining from projecting former Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje as the CM face, the poll has almost become a high-stakes clash between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot.
The BJP’s decision to keep Rajeunder the wraps and place all its eggs in one basket had made a PMCM contest inevitable. As CM Gehlot strives to break the state’s revolving door tradition with his welfare schemes and the BJP seeks to contain its internal rifts by relying on PM Modi’s charisma, the land of kings is primed for an unprecedented electoral encounter.
Historically, CM Gehlot’s record in combating anti-incumbency has been insipid. Despite commendable welfare works, Gehlot was trounced in the elections of 2003 and 2013, after completing his first two terms as CM.
Recognising the need for better communication and marketing, Gehlot, this time, was on a public relations overdrive, showcasing his achievements and connecting with the masses with a vengeance. But despite the overt publicity, what works in Gehlot’s favour this time is the Chiranjeevi Health Insurance Scheme, the law for government employees under the old pension scheme, the proposed purchase of cow dung at Rs 2 a kilo and LPG at Rs 400 per cylinder. All this has been hyped as the seven guarantees of Ashok Gehlot, which have built a compelling narrative for the Congress in Rajasthan.
The Rajasthan election in 2023 is all about the perceived contest between the rich and the poor. The rich are represented by the BJP dispensation and Gehlot is perceived as the messiah of the poor and underprivileged. The BJP has been slammed as the party which favours the wealthy elite. In almost all rallies, the Congress has raked the Adani issue, caste census, price rise, inflation and joblessness. Rahul Gandhi has even stressed on the growing inequality in the country due to the saffron brigade’s rule at the Centre for nearly a decade. This is where Gehlot has succeeded in projecting himself as a foil to PM Modi.
Revelling in catch phrases like “I’m a bigger fakir than Modi,” Gehlot also questioned why Modi is taking over the reins of the Rajasthan campaign if indeed he were a Vishwaguru or global leader. Or that “Modiji does not repeat the dresses he wears. I don’t know how many times he changes his dress -- once, twice, or three times a day. But my dress always remains the same.”
Gehlot even harps on the fact that “I have not bought a plot in my life; nor have I purchased a single gram of gold. Can he be a bigger fakir than me when Modi’s spectacles alone cost Rs2.5 lakh?” Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge deserves kudos for uniting arch rivals Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot; even the belated show of unity has helped in strengthening the Congress presence on the ground and also in terms of visibility and public perception.
The BJP, as was the case in Madhya Pradesh, has tried to parachute Lok Sabha MPs like Rajyavardhan Rathore and Diya Singh but has ended up with a problem of plenty. It has played all its cards...Hindutva, Sanatan Dharma, tailor Kanhaiya Lal and law and order during the Gehlot dispensation.
Modi had, at a rally on Nov 19, criticised the CM and Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, calling him a ‘jaadugar (magician)’ whose tricks are becoming evident through the ‘red diary’. He attacked the Cong government, saying the party and ‘development’ are enemies with its ‘licence to loot’ being documented in the red diary. Modi and Shah have been raking up the curious case of the red diary but the biggest blunder and the issue on which has put BJP on the backfoot is the manner in which the party has sidelined and embarrassed Vasundhara Raje. It deni - ed tickets to her close confidants and the general perception is BJP can never win Rajasthan without Vasundhara at the forefront.
The BJP has been banking on Modi’s appeal but can the lotus bloom in the desert state, leaning on Modi’s shoulders alone. The battle is not easy for the BJP even though the revolving pattern of governance could prove lucky for it this time. For Gehlot, it’s the anti-incumbency and for the BJP it’s a faceless and issueless campaign. Surveys have indicated a neck-and-neck fight, so the million-dollar question is: Who will form the government in Rajasthan? The answer perhaps lies with the six smaller parties and the rebels challenging the BJP and Congress candidates.
Though the Rajasthan electorate has been dutifully alternating between BJP and Congress since 1998, smaller parties and Independents lend crucial support to cross the magic mark of 100 in the 200-member assembly. While BJP under Vasundhara won a decisive mandate in 2013, Gehlot has had to work his magic more than once to get the crucial support of independents and smaller parties. There are at least 30 seats in which smaller parties are influencing voter behaviour.
Additionally, there are 31 seats in which rebels from both main parties will be instrumen tal in converting the contest into a triangular one. BJP and Congress have tried their level-best to convince the rebels to withdraw their candidature, failing which they said disciplinary action will be taken against them. But that has only worked partially and the rebels are spoiling calculations.
Traditionally, Rajasthan has always churned out a decisive mandate but will 2023 emerge as an electoral outlier? As far as PM Modi is concerned, it’s perhaps the biggest risk he has taken by pitting himself against a regional satrap like Ashok Gehlot. If Gehlot wins, in the days to come, Modi will be criticised for overexposing himself in a Vidhan Sabha election. For now, is Modi running the last lap of his race via Rajasthan? Well, that would hold true for Ashok Gehlot as well.
