After Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, Opposition politics suffered severely. After the historic victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Opposition parties suffer not only from a lack of narrative but also from a lack of organisational strength. Politically and by all other means, the BJP's machinery has crushed the Opposition, from regional parties to national political parties. At this juncture, on the final day of the year 2022, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi stated that the BJP can be defeated if the Opposition can present a vision against it. And immediately following this statement, senior leader Kamal Nath hailed Mr Gandhi as challenger to Mr Modi for the position of Prime Minister.
There is no need to specify that the statement represented the personal opinion of Mr Nath. Some Opposition leaders, such as Sanjay Raut of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, have praised Mr Gandhi's stature, but there is significant discontent within other like-minded parties. The year 2023 will be crucial in determining whether non-BJP political parties with similar ideologies can unite despite their differences and national ambitions. Likewise, this year will be crucial for the Congress to demonstrate whether it is willing to accommodate the diverse ideologies of these political parties. It is important to note that some of these political parties, such as the Aam Aadmi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal and the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee, have harmed the Congress in several state elections, with no indication that they will change their strategy.
In 2022, many Opposition leaders declared their intention to go national. Politicians such as Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, and K Chandrashekhar Rao have expressed their desire to expand across multiple states. In this list, Mr Kejriwal is the most successful, as his party now also rules Punjab and has representation in the legislatures of Gujarat and Goa. The AAP is now a national party. Similarly, Mamata Banerjee attempted and failed in Goa. Except for Bengal, her party currently has a presence in Meghalaya. Asaduddin Owaisi's political organisation is also competing with many other states for the support of Muslim voters. According to elementary mathematics, the national ambitions of these political parties do not harm the BJP, but rather the Congress. In India, the BJP will always be the greatest beneficiary of a divided legislature.
From 2014 to 2022, the Opposition parties were unable to resolve the fact that fighting against each other throughout the year and shaking hands before the Lok Sabha elections will never work against the BJP. They must also recognise that while such hypocrisy may be viewed as an effective political strategy from their perspective, it has zero acceptability among the general public. People in India have repeatedly rejected such ad-hoc gatbandhans. The recent decision of Akhilesh Yadav, leader of the Samajwadi Party, to not participate in Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra is an example of parties’ lack of faith in one another.
Therefore, 2023 should be the year in which the Opposition reconsiders these well-established facts and acts differently.
With the conclusion of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, this year will be extremely crucial for the Congress, as the party will contest elections in several key states. Most significantly, this year will demonstrate whether or not the newly elected party President Mallikarjun Kharge has actual authority. As President of the Congress, his primary responsibility will be to reach out to like-minded political parties and arrive at a consensus. Without question, the Gandhi family will not do it directly.
Similarly, Mr Kharge must demonstrate his strategy by ensuring the party's victory. The Congress-ruled states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will hold elections this year. In addition, elections will be held in states like Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka where the Congress has much to prove. According to Karnataka's political observers, the grand old party has a good chance of winning. In states such as Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Karnataka, the growing discontent and infighting within the party will test Mr Kharge's ability to strategise and neutralise them.
Recent assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have provided numerous answers and lessons. First, despite Himachal's majority Hindu population, the BJP lost and the Congress won. This demonstrates that “Modi magic” has its limitations, as it has failed repeatedly in state after state. Similarly, the Gujarat assembly election should serve as a wake-up call for the Opposition, as the Congress vote share was completely transferred to the Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP has made significant gains in Gujarat as a result of the Opposition’s division.
Other leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and KCR, boast of their grand development models. But the time has come for India's Opposition political parties to decide whether they wish to merely increase their foothold or to present an alternative to the Indian people.
The BJP is not unbeatable, and neither is the magic of PM Narendra Modi. However, the strength of the BJP is in their unity. India requires strong opposition to it. If the beauty of India is in its diversity and democracy, then the beauty of that democracy is in the existence of a sturdy Opposition. But this year, before the 2024 general elections, Opposition political leaders in India should ask themselves what they have to offer the Indian people. If these political parties continue to consume each other's votes in the name of national expansion, Opposition unity is impossible. And the BJP loves and desires anarchy within the Opposition.
The writer is a doctoral research scholar in media and politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in this article are personal
