There are many hurdles on the pathway to Mumbai where the INDIA bloc comprising 26 Opposition political parties is going to have its next brainstorming session on August 31-September 1. But there is also good news. Even as divisions crop up and disputes erupt shattering the calm, creating doubts about INDIA’s capability to fight the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unitedly and defeat it, there is also an unmistakably strong will to iron out differences.
At times, when the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lunge at each other in full public view, or Mamata Banerjee openly demands that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Congress give her Trinamool Congress a walkover in all the 42 seats in West Bengal or face the consequences, or Sharad Pawar looks all set to jump ship, the only solution is back-channel talks — much like the informal secret negotiations the Indian and Pakistani sides are known to engage in to avert a full-blown crisis!
There will be provocations galore in the coming ten days as campaigning for by-elections in Kerala, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Tripura picks up before voters queue up to exercise their franchise on September 5. These by-polls will be an acid test for opposition unity as candidates of INDIA constituents are fighting in the ring.
And they are merrily gunning for one another — I don’t foresee any magic formula being worked out at this stage to stop the non-BJP parties from attacking each other and vitiating the atmosphere in the run-up to the Mumbai conclave.
Initially, there was some hope that the contest in Kerala’s Puthupally assembly between the CPI(M)’s Jaick C Thomas and Congress party’s Chandy Oommen would be a restrained and civilised affair out of respect for late chief minister Oommen Chandy and the spirit of INDIA. It would have been ideal if the ruling Marxists had simply conceded Puthupally to the Congress party as a grand gesture to the memory of the much loved man who represented it for five decades.
But that was obviously too much to expect from chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan; his police had, after all, arrested Kerala Congress president K Sudhakaran on the very day Opposition parties met in Patna to forge a common front to defeat the BJP in 2024.
The gloves are already off and it’s a free-for-all in Kerala with electioneering in Puthupally gathering momentum. The Congress party is attacking Vijayan and his businesswoman daughter Veena. The leader of the Opposition, V D Satheesan, is demanding a vigilance inquiry to unearth Vijayan’s alleged corruption, fanning the politics of confrontation and vilification in the slugfest over a seat which the Marxists should have had the wisdom and sagacity to gift the Congress Party on a platter.
In the Ghosi assembly by-poll in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress party has not fielded a candidate against its INDIA ally, Samajwadi Party. But Akhilesh Yadav’s party hasn’t reciprocated the Congress Party’s gesture in the Bageshwar seat by-poll in Uttarakhand. The Samajwadi Party is refusing to withdraw its candidate on the ground that an “alliance formula has not yet been worked out” upsetting the Congress party. The Samajwadi Party’s prospects are nil; yet it has chosen to queer the Congress party’s pitch to the BJP’s advantage. It could have easily avoided the Bageshwar contest in the spirit of give-and-take, especially as the Congress party rightly chose to stay away from Ghosi.
There is so much bad blood over the Dhupguri seat in West Bengal that Banerjee is openly accusing the Trinamool Congress’ INDIA allies CPI(M) and Congress Party of working at the BJP’s behest. The CPI(M) and Congress Party have a formal alliance in place since the 2021 assembly elections. And, as expected, the CPI(M) has fielded a candidate in Dhupguri with the full backing of the Congress Party, making it a triangular fight between the BJP (which had held the seat), Trinamool Congress and CPI(M)-Congress Party. Charges and counter-charges are being traded on a daily basis making a mockery of INDIA.
Tripura is the only state where INDIA parties are fully on the same page and not publicly crossing swords. The CPI(M) has fielded candidates in Dhanpur and Boxanagar with the genuine and whole-hearted support of the Congress Party, making it a straight fight between INDIA and BJP in both seats. There are strong signs of INDIA scoring its first victories over BJP in Tripura after its formation.
An India-wide seat-sharing blueprint is still a mirage but INDIA is faring not too badly and things can only get better in Mumbai. There are three instances of good management of conflict — and this approach is a morale-booster because of its sheer effectiveness.
Firstly, Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayanta Chowdhury was absent during the voting for the Delhi Bill despite RLD being an INDIA constituent. It seemed that he had been lured by the BJP into skipping the Rajya Sabha. He explained his absence citing his wife’s surgery but that wasn’t too convincing. So Congress, Trinamool Congress and DMK leaders sat down with Chowdhury. After the counselling, he issued a strong statement echoing the INDIA line and criticising BJP and Narendra Modi.
Secondly, top Congress party leaders stepped in immediately to repair the breach with the AAP after Alka Lamba’s incendiary statement that the party would contest all the seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats. And thirdly, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut extracted an assurance on INDIA’s behalf from Pawar that he had not succumbed to temptation and had no intention of deserting the Opposition alliance and crossing over.
All these interventions augur rather well, despite the mudslinging triggered by by-election campaigns, in the run-up to the Mumbai huddle. Opposition honchos are thinking on their feet — and that's a good sign.
The author is an independent, Pegasused reporter and commentator on foreign policy and domestic politics
